How I Did with My Super Tuesday Predictions

Well, I had written two articles with my predictions for both the Democratic winner and the Republican winner of Super Tuesday. Unfortunately, AC published them several days after the big event. So I thought we would just go ahead here and see how I did.

I was pretty much accurate with my overall assessment of John McCain getting the advantage and the resultant Clinton / Obama split on the Democratic side. But let us take a look see at how I did on the breakdown by state.

DEMOCRATS
On the Democratic side of the aisle, I was right 78% of the time.

Alabama - I called this one a close vote, with Obama taking it. ACTUAL RESULT Obama 56% Clinton 42%

Alaska - I called this one for Clinton by a slim margin. ACTUAL RESULT Obama 75% Clinton 25%

Arizona (67) will not even be close. This one goes to Clinton by a large margin. ACTUAL RESULT Clinton 51% Obama 42%

Arkansas - I said it should be a slam dunk for Clinton here.. ACTUAL RESULT Clinton 70% Obama 27%

California - I said Obama and Clinton would share this state in the WIN column. ACTUAL RESULT Clinton 52% Obama 42%

Colorado - I said Obama would carry this state. ACTUAL RESULT Obama 67% Clinton 32%

Connecticut - I said Obama would win here but it would be so close the Clinton camp would call for a recount. ACTUAL RESULT Obama 51% Clinton 47%

Delaware - I said Clinton would win here. ACTUAL RESULT Obama 53% Clinton 43%

Georgia - I said this would be a firm win for Obama, with Clinton making a fair showing. ACTUAL RESULT Obama 67% Clinton 31%

Idaho - I said this would be a huge win for Obama. ACTUAL RESULT Obama 79% Clinton 17%

Illinois - I called Obama having a decisive win here, with the gap between him and Clinton pretty big. ACTUAL RESULT Obama 65% Clinton 33%

Kansas - I called this a big win for Obama with the Edwards votes going his way. ACTUAL RESULT Obama 74% Clinton 26%

Massachusetts - I called this one for Clinton, despite (or because of) Obama getting the Kennedy endorsement. ACTUAL RESULT Clinton 56% Obama 41%

Minnesota - I said that Bill would be an adverse influence on this state and that Obama would win by a slight margin. ACTUAL RESULT Obama 67% Clinton 32%

Missouri - I presumed Clinton would win decisively. ACTUAL RESULT Obama 49% Clinton 48%

New Jersey - despite the fact that Obama-girl is from Jersey (who didn't vote after all), I called this one for Clinton. ACTUAL RESULT Clinton 54% Obama 44%

New Mexico - I predicted it a Clinton victory. ACTUAL RESULT Clinton 49% Obama 48%

New York - I called this for Clinton but said they should be shaken by how surprisingly well Obama did in her home state. I don't know if they were worried by this one, but word from the Obama camp is that the Clintons put in $5 mil of their own money right before Super Tuesday (though the email I got said it was after the Tuesday events). ACTUAL RESULT Clinton 57% Obama 40%

N. Dakota - I called this a murky win for Obama. ACTUAL RESULT Obama 61% Clinton 37%

Oklahoma - I called this a very close one, with Clinton getting the big "W". ACTUAL RESULT Clinton 55% Obama 31%

Tennessee - I said this would be a Clinton win with the margin very slim. ACTUAL RESULT Clinton 54% Obama 41%

Utah - I said the Edwards supporters would swing over to Obama but that Clinton would win. ACTUAL RESULT Obama 57% Clinton 39%

American Samoa - I reported this would be a Clinton victory. ACTUAL RESULT Clinton 57% Obama 43% (Just an interesting note. Clinton received 163 votes to Obama's 121. I don't think either side would call for a recount, but it would be a quick one here.)

REPUBLICANS
On the Republican side, I only had a 61% accuracy rating. Not so good. But then again, I never in a million years would have seen Romney drop from the race after Super Tuesday.

Alabama - I said Huckabee would be the winner here with just a slight lead. ACTUAL RESULT Huckabee 41% McCain 37%

Alaska - I said McCain would win big, with Romney and Huckabee way down in second and third. ACTUAL RESULT Romney 44% Huckabee 22%

Arkansas - I said Huckabee would be a close second to a McCain win here. ACTUAL RESULT Huckabee 60% McCain 20%

Arizona - I called this battleground as a win for McCain and Romney coming a close second. ACTUAL RESULT McCain 48% Romney 34%

California - I called this one for Romney with Huckabee in single digits. ACTUAL RESULT McCain 42% Romney 34%

Colorado - I called this as a big win for Romney. ACTUAL RESULT Romney 60% McCain 19%

Connecticut - I predicted all 30 delegates going to McCain. ACTUAL RESULT McCain 52% Romney 33%

Delaware - I predicted McCain would take the win here. ACTUAL RESULT McCain 45% Romney 33%

Georgia - I called it a close one with Huckabee winning. ACTUAL RESULT Huckabee 34% McCain 32%

Illinois - I stated McCain would have a decisive victory here. ACTUAL RESULT McCain 47% Romney 29%

Massachusetts - I said Romney would win decisively here with McCain in second. ACTUAL RESULT Romney 51% McCain 41%

Minnesota - I called this a McCain win with Romney second. ACTUAL RESULT Romney 41% McCain 22%

Missouri - I said McCain would win with a slim lead and Huckabee would come in second. ACTUAL RESULT McCain 33% Huckabee 32%

Montana - I had McCain winning. ACTUAL RESULT Romney 38% Paul 25%

New Jersey - I called for McCain to win big in the GardenState. ACTUAL RESULT McCain 55% Romney 28%

New York - I said New York would back McCain big time. ACTUAL RESULT McCain 51% Romney 28%

North Dakota - I called this Paul stronghold as a win for Huckabee with Paul making a decent showing. ACTUAL RESULT Romney 36% McCain 23%

Oklahoma - I called this a big win for McCain. ACTUAL RESULT McCain 37% Huckabee 33%

Tennessee - I called this one for McCain. ACTUAL RESULT Huckabee 34% McCain 32%

Utah - I said all the delegates would go to Romney. ACTUAL RESULT Romney 90% McCain 5%

West Virginia - I said McCain would win here among strong anti-Romney sentiment. ACTUAL RESULT Huckabee 52% Romney 47%

Sources:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
RealClearPoltics

http://abcnews.go.com/politics/elections/state?state=AS&ref=ipb
ABC News: Primary Results By State