How to Draft the Next Great WR in Your Fantasy Football League

Statsman
Why should you listen to my fantasy football advice? In 9 years of playing fantasy football I have won 5 Championships.

When I started playing fantasy football back in the 1998 season Jerry Rice was still the best WR in football, and fantasy football. I joined a keeper fantasy football league that year with a friend of mine and as we talked draft strategy he kept lamenting that he wanted Jerry Rice but couldn't get him because he was obviously being kept by the fantasy owner who had him in our fantasy league. I kept saying to him that Rice was getting old and that I didn't want him, I wanted the Next Jerry Rice.

So I began looking at fantasy stats to see if I could find the next great WR that way. I didn't come up with a perfect plan to find the next Jerry Rice but I did find one stat that was, and still is, a very useful tool for finding the next great WR.

The stat is yards per catch, or average yards per catch. When a young WR has a high average yards per catch in a limited number of catches, usually around 20-50 catches, that WR could explode the next season and be the next great WR. I've found the magic number to be 14.5 yards per catch average or over.

I'm going to give you some examples of what I mean, and then list all the young WR's from last season who match the criteria. The young WR's are far from sure things to be the next great WR and should be drafted as 3rd, 4th and 5th WR's on your team. If you hit with one of them your off to the races in your fantasy league.

Terrell Owens - in his rookie year he made 35 catches good for 520 yards, a 14.9 average per catch. I took him with my second pick in my very first Fantasy Football Draft right after Marshall Faulk with my 1st pick in that fantasy draft (keeper league). TO went on to grab 60 catches for 936 yards, a 15.6 average, with 8 touchdown scores in his second year. And then he exploded in his 3rd year for 67 catches, 1097 yards, 16.4 average and 14 more scores. Now with the Dallas Cowboys, of course.

Steve Smith - in Smith's second season he had 54 catches good for 872 yards and a gaudy 16.1 average, but only 3 scores. I took him early in a keeper league and he went on to post 88 catches with 7 touchdown scores in his 3rd year. He was especially good the second half of the year greatly helping many fantasy owners, including myself. Still with the Carolina Panthers.

Joe Horn - in his fourth year he made 35 catches with a 16.7 yard average per catch. The next year he exploded with 94 catches for 1340 yards and 8 scores. Played for the New Orleans Saints for many years, now with the Atlanta Falcons.

Javon Walker - had 41 catches in his sophomore season with a great 17.5 yards per catch average and 9 scores. He exploded his 3rd year with 89 catches and 12 scores. He was so good his second season though he was kept in many fantasy leagues, including mine. Still with the Denver Broncos.

Young WR's with high yards per catch averages in 2006:

Devry Henderson (New Orleans Saints) - 32 receptions, 23.3 yard average, 5 TD's.

Hank Baskett (Philadelphia Eagles) - 22 receptions, 22.1 yard average, 2 TD's.

Mark Bradley (Chicago Bears) - 14 catches, 20.1 yard average, 3 TD's.

Demetrius Williams (Baltimore Ravens) - 22 receptions, 18.0 yard average, 2 TD's.

Nate Washington (Pittsburgh Steelers) - 35 receptions, 17.8 yards per catch, 4 TD's.

Reggie Brown (Philadelphia Eagles) - 46 receptions, 17.7 yards per catch, 8 TD's.

Ruvell Martin (Green Bay Packers) - 21 receptions, 17.0 yards per catch, 1 TD's.

Roddy White (Atlanta Falcons) - 30 receptions, 16.9 yards per catch, 0 TD's.

Chris Henry (Cincinnati Bengals) - 36 receptions, 16.8 yards per catch, 9 TD's.

Vincent Jackson (San Diego Chargers) - 27 receptions, 16.8 yards per catch, 6 TD's.

Santonio Holmes (Pittsburgh Steelers) - 29 receptions, 16.8 yards per catch, 2 TD's.

Terrance Copper (New Orleans Saints) - 23 receptions, 16.7 yards per catch, 3 TD's. Former Dallas Cowboy.

Matt Jones (Jacksonville Jaguars) - 41 receptions,15.7 yards per catch, 4 TD's.

Brandon Marshall (Denver Broncos) - 20 receptions, 15.5 yards per catch, 2 TD's.

Bernard Berrian (Chicago Bears) - 51 recpetions,15.2 yards per catch , 6 TD's.

A few of these WR's will likely explode in the 2007 season. If you pick the right one in your fantasy football draft he might just lead you to a Fantasy Football Super Bowl Championship this year.

Published by Statsman

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12 Comments

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  • T.H.Pankey 7/24/2007

    Solid stuff-you know your stuff, Michael.

  • T.H.Pankey 7/24/2007

    Just a tidbit on Horn, he was one of New Orleans Saints' most prolific receivers, second all-time only to LSU product Eric Martin, in receptions with 523, receiving yards 7622, and first in TD receptions 50. Plus before before being injury-plagued last year, and the Katrina-Rita season the year before, Joe Horn had become one of the best go-to-receivers in the league, being thrown to on 3rd and 4th down more than any other receiver in the NFC. See more here if you like; http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/172242/no_more_horn_blowin_in_new_orleans.html

  • T.H.Pankey 7/24/2007

    Nice to see you placed the top young WR at the top of your list. Devery Henderson had four more yards per catch than the rest of the pack at 23.3 per catch. It was the highest yardage total on the fewest catches (32) in nearly two decades in the NFL. He hauled in six passes of 45 yards or more, too. He was a world class sprinter out of LSU. He really does translate that blazing speed onto the field, too. I'm trying to understand though, why you don't have Colston and his 14.8 yds per catch on the list given your system? If anybody should be on that list, he should. But I digress, I know how you have the list set up. Just wanted to throw his name around.

  • Christine Zibas 6/21/2007

    I'm impressed by your wins! What do you win...money, prizes, or is this just for the glory? In any case, you got an article out of it, right?

  • Ryan Stephens 6/16/2007

    Good article. I was fortunate enough to get Torry Holt in the 3rd around of my 10 team league last year. I went Shaun Alexander, Ronnie Brown, and then Torry Holt. Didn't win it all though with Alexander getting hurt. WHY didn't I just take LT ? lol Of these, I agree about Henry staying out of jail and I think Brown could have a big year if Donavon stay's healthy.

  • Jeanne Marie Kerns 6/14/2007

    Men and their video games.. lol.. My husband has this thing with World of warcraft.. Drives me insane :-)

  • Brian Joura 6/14/2007

    Never too early to have an opinion. Thanks for the reply

  • Brian Joura 6/14/2007

    And which one do you think is the best of this lot?

  • Becky Gallops 6/12/2007

    I'm pretty clueless about fantasy football, but this seems like good information and is well written!

  • Summer Banks 6/12/2007

    Football is not my thing, but you made it fun to read! Thanks!

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