How Far Do Seeded Teams Go in March Madness - 2009 Edition

Welcome to the 2009 edition looking at how far a seeded team tends to go in March Madness. As you probably know, March Madness, or the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship, is the final event of the NCAA Division I men's basketball season. 64 teams compete in a tournament to crown a champion. This project started last year, when I wrote a 2008 edition on this same subject. Like the 2008 edition, this article looks at March Madness brackets from 1985 to 2008 to see far a team's seed goes in March Madness up to the Final Four. There is no analysis in this article, just raw numbers, percentages, and odds. Simply go to the seed you're interested in and read how the seed historically performed in March Madness up to the Final Four. Hopefully you will find this article useful and informative, and perhaps it can even help you with filling out your March Madness brackets if you decide to participate in a March Madness basketball pool or related venture.

For reference, there were 1536 teams seeded from #1 to #16 (96 teams per seed) in March Madness from 1985 to 2008.

The #1 Seed

All 96 #1 seeded teams have advanced to the second round of March Madness (100%), 84 have reached the Sweet Sixteen (87.50%), 69 have reached the Elite Eight (71.88%), and 42 have advanced to the Final Four (43.75%). In terms of March Madness historical odds, the #1 seed will always advance to the second round, has a 1 in 1.14 chance of reaching the Sweet Sixteen, a 1 in 1.39 chance of reaching the Elite Eight, and a 1 in 2.29 chance of reaching the Final Four.

The #2 Seed

92 #2 seeded teams have advanced to the second round of March Madness (95.83%), 60 have reached the Sweet Sixteen (62.50%), 44 have reached the Elite Eight (45.83%), and 21 have advanced to the Final Four (21.88%). In terms of March Madness historical odds, the #2 seed has a 1 in 1.04 chance of reaching the second round, a 1 in 1.60 chance of reaching the Sweet Sixteen, a 1 in 2.18 chance of reaching the Elite Eight, and a 1 in 4.57 chance of reaching the Final Four.

The #3 Seed

81 #3 seeded teams have advanced to the second round of March Madness (84.38%), 48 have reached the Sweet Sixteen (50.00%), 23 have reached the Elite Eight (23.96%), and 12 have advanced to the Final Four(12.50%). In terms of March Madness historical odds, the #3 seed has a 1 in 1.19 chance of reaching the second round, a 1 in 2.00 chance of reaching the Sweet Sixteen, a 1 in 4.17 chance of reaching the Elite Eight, and a 1 in 8.00 chance of reaching the Final Four.

The #4 Seed

76 #4 seeded teams have advanced to the second round of March Madness (79.17%), 41 have reached the Sweet Sixteen (42.71%), 14 have reached the Elite Eight (14.58%), and nine have advanced to the Final Four (9.38%). In terms of March Madness historical odds, the #4 seed has a 1 in 1.26 chance of reaching the second round, a 1 in 2.34 chance of reaching the Sweet Sixteen, a 1 in 6.86 chance of reaching the Elite Eight, and a 1 in 10.66 chance of reaching the Final Four.

The #5 Seed

65 #5 seeded teams have advanced to the second round of March Madness (67.71%), 35 have reached the Sweet Sixteen (36.46%), five have reached the Elite Eight (5.21%), and four have advanced to the Final Four (4.17%). In terms of March Madness historical odds, the #5 seed has a 1 in 1.48 chance of reaching the second round, a 1 in 2.74 chance of reaching the Sweet Sixteen, a 1 in 19.19 chance of reaching the Elite Eight, and a 1 in 23.98 chance of reaching the Final Four.

The #6 Seed

66 #6 seeded teams have advanced to the second round of March Madness (68.75%), 36 have reached the Sweet Sixteen (37.50%), 12 have reached the Elite Eight (12.50%), and three have advanced to the Final Four (3.13%). In terms of March Madness historical odds, the #6 seed has a 1 in 1.45 chance of reaching the second round, a 1 in 2.67 chance of reaching the Sweet Sixteen, a 1 in 8.00 chance of reaching the Elite Eight, and a 1 in 31.95 chance of reaching the Final Four.

The #7 Seed

60 #7 seeded teams have advanced to the second round of March Madness (62.50%), 18 have reached the Sweet Sixteen (18.75%), and six have reached the Elite Eight (6.25%). To date, no #7 seed has advanced to the Final Four. In terms of March Madness historical odds, the #7 seed has a 1 in 1.60 chance of reaching the second round, a 1 in 5.33 chance of reaching the Sweet Sixteen, and a 1 in 16.00 chance of reaching the Elite Eight.

The #8 Seed

44 #8 seeded teams have advanced to the second round of March Madness (45.83%), nine have reached the Sweet Sixteen (9.38%), six have reached the Elite Eight (6.25%), and three have advanced to the Final Four (3.13%). In terms of March Madness historical odds, the #8 seed has a 1 in 2.18 chance of reaching the second round, a 1 in 10.66 chance of reaching the Sweet Sixteen, a 1 in 16.00 chance of reaching the Elite Eight, and a 1 in 31.95 chance of reaching the Final Four.

The #9 Seed

52 #9 seeded teams have advanced to the second round of March Madness (54.17%), three have reached the Sweet Sixteen (3.13%), and one has advanced to the Elite Eight (1.04%). To date, no #9 seed has advanced to the Final Four. In terms of March Madness historical odds, the #9 seed has a 1 in 1.85 chance of reaching the second round, a 1 in 31.95 chance of reaching the Sweet Sixteen, and a 1 in 96.00 chance of reaching the Elite Eight.

The #10 Seed

36 #10 seeded teams have reached the second round of March Madness (37.50%), 18 have reached the Sweet Sixteen (18.75%), and seven have reached the Elite Eight (7.29%). To date, no #10 seed has advanced to the Final Four. In terms of March Madness historical odds, the #10 seed has a 1 in 2.67 chance of reaching the second round, a 1 in 5.33 chance of reaching the Sweet Sixteen, and a 1 in 13.72 chance of reaching the Elite Eight.

The #11 Seed

30 #11 seeded teams have reached the second round of March Madness (31.25%), 11 have reached the Sweet Sixteen (11.46%), four have reached the Elite Eight (4.17%), and two have advanced to the Final Four (2.08%). In terms of March Madness historical odds, the #11 seed has a 1 in 3.20 chance of reaching the second round, a 1 in 8.73 chance of reaching the Sweet Sixteen, a 1 in 23.98 chance of reaching the Elite Eight, and a 1 in 48 chance of reaching the Final Four.

The #12 Seed

31 #12 seeded teams have reached the second round of March Madness (32.29%), 16 have reached the Sweet Sixteen (16.67%), and one has reached the Elite Eight (1.04%). To date, no #12 seed has advanced to the Final Four. In terms of March Madness historical odds, the #12 seed has a 1 in 3.10 chance of reaching the second round, a 1 in 6.00 chance of reaching the Sweet Sixteen, and a 1 in 96 chance of reaching the Elite Eight.

The #13 Seed

20 #13 seeded teams have reached the second round of March Madness (20.83%) and four have reached the Sweet Sixteen (4.17%). To date, no #13 seed has reached the Elite Eight or the Final Four. In terms of March Madness historical odds, the #13 seed has a 1 in 4.80 chance of reaching the second round and a 1 in 23.98 chance of reaching the Sweet Sixteen.

The #14 Seed

15 #14 seeded teams have reached the second round of March Madness (15.63%) and only one team has reached the Sweet Sixteen (1.04%). To date, no #14 seed has reached the Elite Eight or the Final Four. In terms of March Madness historical odds, the #14 seed has a 1 in 6.40 chance of reaching the second round and a 1 in 96 chance of reaching the Sweet Sixteen.

The #15 Seed

Only four #15 seeds have advanced to the second round of March Madness (4.17%). The remaining 88 teams have been eliminated in the first round of March Madness. To date, no #15 seed has advanced past the second round of the tournament. In terms of March Madness historical odds this gives the #15 seed a 1 in 23.98 chance of reaching the second round of March Madness

The #16 Seed

To date, no #16 seed has advanced past the first round of March Madness. All 92 teams have been eliminated by the #1 seed in the first round of March Madness.