How Hillary Clinton Beat Barack Obama in the New Hampshire Primary
"Hillary Rodham Clinton: Exhausted and frustrated by a campaign gone suddenly wrong." - The Associated Press
"Only 2 people attend Clinton support meeting" - A misleading headline from The Missourian
"So Much For a Raucous Caucus--Clinton Campaign in Freefall" - The Seattlest
"Hillary's Poisonous NH Cloud" - Grist Magazine Headline
"Barack Obama Will Win New Hampshire" - Rockbridge Weekly
"Facing a double-digit defeat in New Hampshire, a sudden collapse in national polls and an expected fund-raising drought, Senator Hillary Clinton is preparing for a tough decision: Does she get out of the race? And when?!" - Drudge Report
That's enough punditry for now. Here's the only quote that matters:
"Clinton 39%, Obama 37%" - The New Hampshire Voters
After most polls predicted a huge, double digit victory for Illinois Senator Barack Obama in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary, the actual voters had an entirely different idea.
Hillary Clinton's win is not just a win for her campaign and supporters, but it's a win for democracy and a democratic process, and a defeat for a media that's become over obsessed with horse races and poll numbers.
It's amazing, or at least it should be, that most of the national media had, to one degree or another, anointed Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee for President after a victory in the small state of Iowa, at a time when the vast majority of the country hasn't really started to pay any real attention yet, much less actually cast a vote!
Why Obama Lost
In New Hampshire, Clinton didn't so much win as Barack Obama was rejected. Exit poll data reported by CNN shows that an estimated 15% of voters in the Democratic primary made up their minds in the final three days of the election, after Obama's stunning Iowa upset.
What the numbers mean is that actually took a harder, closer look at Obama as not only a candidate, but one who could well eventually become the nominee. A majority decided that they didn't want that day to come.
One reason for the defeat is Obama's relative inexperience in the political sphere combined with a perception that he might not win against a Republican "when it counts," said 29 year old Kelly Johnston of Manchester, NH to the Rev. Rob Times. "I was behind Obama since the whole thing started, but I changed my mind at the last minute because I never thought he was really going to win - I just liked his message a lot - I really do like it, but then I imagined him in the oval office and voted for Hillary instead, because I think she can win and do a good job too."
As has been previously reported, in Iowa Obama made "pacts" with Richardson and Kucinich to siphon supports at the caucuses, and offered the same deal to Biden, which was refused. In addition, is campaign brought in out of state supports and distributed 50,000 fliers to students who are out of state residents to instruct them to caucus for Obama, as Bill Clinton mentioned in a stump speech for his wife.
There are new unconfirmed reports coming out of Iowa that in some precincts in which the precinct captain was an Obama supporter, the number of participants in the caucus was artificially increased so that caucus groups for lower tier candidates, (Biden, Dodd, Kucinich, and Richardson), would be declared non-viable, and supporters would have to disburse, forced to leave or support another candidate, thus making it likely for Obama to pick up additional supporters and increase his lead.
Unlike in Iowa, where there are no checks and balances and zero oversight into the process, the New Hampshire primary is designed like much like the presidential elections that most Americans are used to: One person, one vote, by secret ballot. It's impossible to cheat at all.
What's Next for Obama
Following New Hampshire, there are 49 more contests to go (yes, Washington DC counts) for Democrats. Obama will certainly win some and lose some, but he has learned that there is no such thing as the "politics of inevitability." Voters do make up their own minds, despite a media that is increasingly driving the debate away from the candidates and the issues.
It's telling that in Obama's concession speech, he used a teleprompter, something unusual for him to do. Clearly he had only memorized the victory speech and was surprised by the outcome. In this race, there will be a lot more surprises to come, because 'we the people' will decide the outcome, and no one else.
Published by Robert Vinciguerra
Founder of "The Rev. Rob Times," (www.revrob.com) Rev. Robert A. Vinciguerra has been a longtime student of journalism. Currently, he holds a government job where is a technical writer, instructional designe... View profile
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14 Comments
Post a CommentHa, ha!
(continued) need a "decider" who is calm under pressure (no tears, but simple calm), has good judgment (no votes for an unjustified war), and who has the best advice this country can provide and TAKES it. There were some very good people who offered George "W" Bush advice, but, unless it coincided exactly with his own world view, he either fired them or ignored them. (Colin Powell comes to mind ,and Paul O'Neill, former Secretary of the Treasury, and author of "Against All Enemies.") It feels as though Obama would and will listen, before rushing us off to war, and, as the LEAST wealthy of all the candidates, I do not think he is in this for the money. (Elect an oil man and what do you get? Sky high oil prices, that's what you get.) Europe is overjoyed that we are (finally) electing someone with a World View that doesn't begin and end with a remote farm in Texas. Maybe, now, when we send people to Arabic-speaking countries, they will actually be able to speak Arabic. (There's a novel co
As I read this on June 6, having just posted "Why Hillary Won" (the entire battle), I would like to say, to the person who said, "No one can give his position on _____________." Send me a private message and I'll let you know how/where he stands, because, actually, I DO know his position(s) on most of the issues that are hot-button issues in this campaign. In fact, our local papers ran a very nice side-by-side comparison of McCain vs. Obama, issue by issue, and I'm sure there are many other articles just like it out there...if you just do some reading. I am singularly impressed by the advisors on board and standing ready to assist Obama (who is very intelligent, himself) with talking points on any issue you can name. The ultimate decision, however, will be our next President (remember when "W" said, "I'm the decider!" and look where THAT got us) and, as far as judgment, Obama has shown better judgment, to date, than the opposition, including Hillary, who voted FOR the war in Iraq. We
It is always amusing to read different people's ideas. Comments I saw such as Steinem's NY Times piece is that people that were voting for Obama changed their mind and voted for her because they felt moved by her "poor me" tears. I would wonder if she could not handle the stress of campaigning how could she hold up, say if China and Russia decide to attack us if we attack Iran. Unity is not a slogan to me. Maybe that comes from seeing disharmony between all the warring factors in the US society. Neo-Confederates want a new civil war to get rid of all non-whites, Hebrews and others. MeCHas and some LaRasas want 5 states back~already remove US flags and replace with Mexican ones, declaring victory in California. Minute Men are doing battle with them and illegal immigrants. Lakotas have already served the gov with cessation papers. Christians hate everyone. We are hated abroad...
Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are losers. They do not stand a chance in the on coming presidential election. Noone in the right mind wants tax hikes, socialized health care and a weak military presence. These two are DEATH to America. Mitt Romney is the only salvation.
Wow, check out that axe you're grinding. Put that axe down and read this instead: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/540481/things_ive_learned_from_the_2008_primary.html
I'm very irritated by Kelly Johnston's statement that she was going to vote for Barack, but didn't because she didn't think he would win. Not voting for someone because you want to vote for the winning team is the stupidest reason to vote. You should vote for the person that you want in office. Just voting for the person who you think will win so that you can feel good about yourself for "being on the winning team" is just childish.
the tears helped her a great deal, i wonder whether she can repeat that trick!
Great coverage!
This was an interesting article and the out come of the this election was surprising to me as it was to many. This is another possible reason for the outcome: it seems that in the counties where the ballots was counted by hand, Obama won....in the counties that Clinton won, the ballots were counted by machine.....sound like the Ohio count of 2004 all over again.....the fact is, that after the last 2 national elections, both of which have left a lot of questions, to say nothing of hard feelings in our country, anything is possible. I hope the time comes, and comes soon when we wil all be able to trust our government and its institutions again...right now, I trust nothing that goes on and I question everything.