How Likely Are the Current Presidential Candidates

Barrack Obama seems an unlikely candidate for president. I know that lately there has been a lot of talk about Obama but it is difficult to take him seriously as a 2008 contender. His political experience is almost non-existent. He served one term as a state senator in Illinois and is now working on his very first term as a US senator. If he runs for the presidency in 2008 he will have less than four years experience in a national office. As far as I can tell, Obama's fame started when he gave the keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention in 2004. Beyond that speech there isn't much to say about Obama. If this were a horse race then Obama would definitely be a long shot. This is true because of his age, his ethnicity, and his religion. In 2008, Obama will only be 47 and this is a bit younger than presidential candidates tend to be. We've never even had a black or moslem running mate. So, this would mean that Obama would have to go from obscurity to winning at a young age with very little experience and not only be the first black president but the first moslem as well. This just doesn't seem very likely.

Actually, I would tend to view Obama's notoriety as more tragic than beneficial. His fanfare in New Hampshire derailed the candidacy of Evan Bayh, a man who is much more qualified to be president and someone who would be more likely to win. Evan Bayh served as Indiana Secretary of State for two years and then as governor for eight years and is now on his second term as senator. Evan Bayh is quite familiar with politics because his father, Birch Bayh also served as an Indiana senator. In 2008, Evan Bayh would be 53 years old and therefore a more typical age for president than Obama. Interestingly, Bayh gave the same keynote speech as Obama in 1996 but it didn't give Bayh the same notoriety since Clinton was president at the time. The main difference I see between these two is luck. Bayh had his hands tied during his first term as senator because of the Republican majority however Obama arrived with a Democratic majority and therefore no serious obstacles. Obama's lack of experience in dealing with the opposition is another reason to doubt his qualifications. Obama would not be assured of having a Democratic house and senate in 2008.

It must seem doubly ironic to Bayh that Hillary Clinton is also commanding attention since Bill Clinton stated that he hoped to be voting for Evan Bayh for president someday. And, now Hillary like Obama is also taking the spotlight away from other challengers like Bayh. I suppose Hillary would have experience that Obama lacks and therefore could be taken more seriously as a candidate. Her role in trying to create national health care indicates that she had some experience with politics and policy before she got to the White House so she apparently picked up something during the twelve years that Bill served as governor. It is a certainty that she was likewise involved with politics and policy while Bill was president. Therefore her single term as senator also with a Republican majority would have to be viewed as a much greater level of experience than Obama. I suppose her candidacy is not as much of a long shot as Obama's. While a woman has never served as vice president there has been at least one female running mate and Hillary doesn't have the problem of being a minority religion, particularly a religion that many Americans would view as hostile to the US. Normally, I would view a Hillary candidacy as impossible however there is a slim chance of her being electable if the backlash against Bush is strong enough.

However, the Republican side doesn't look much stronger with John McCain in the lead. He is seen as being too much of an apologist for George W. Bush's policies and this is a serious detriment when Bush's approval rating is only 30%. Although he has plenty of experience, his age is a factor since he will be 73 in 2008. Another potential candidate, Rudolph Giuliani had a moment of fame after the 9/11 attacks. He is younger than McCain and would be 64 in 2008. However unlike McCain, his experience is badly lacking with only 7 years as mayor of New York City. It is possible that we have yet to see a truly strong candidate to emerge. For example, Mitt Romney could become the true Republican candidate and it is always possible that former running mate John Edward could become the leader on the Democratic side. At any rate, this does seem to be an election where weaker candidates are getting all the attention.