How Long Until Baseball's Alex Rodriguez Breaks the All-Time Home Run Record?

Even with Barry Bonds recent stumble in pursuit of Hank Aaron's legendary home run record, it's only a matter of time before it breaks it. All records are meant to be broken and since Barry Bonds isn't getting any younger, he's not going to extend the Home Run record much further than the 756 he needs to be crowned the new home run king. However, how many years will his record stand? By the look of things, it's not going to very long before Alex Rodriguez starts to creep up on the record books and starts to beat down those doors with his own gaudy numbers.

Presently, Alex Rodriguez is poised to break the 500 career Home Run mark at age 32, whereas Barry Bonds managed to surpass the 500 mark when he was 36. If things continue the way they're going, Alex Rodriguez will have surpassed 500 Home Runs when he was a full four years younger than Barry Bonds. There's a very healthy chance that Alex Rodriguez will be the youngest player to reach 500 home runs, assuming he breaks it within a few months. Currently, Jimmie Foxx is the youngest player to reach 500 home runs, when he was 32 years and 336 days old.

Based upon Alex Rodriguez's 44 Home Run for every 162 games average, he'd surpass 700 home runs in about 4 ½ seasons, which would set him around 36 or 37 years old, which was approximately the age when Barry Bonds broke the 500 mark. Based upon talent and pure numbers, Alex Rodriguez is going to pass every player ahead of him and eventually break whatever home run record Barry Bonds (assuming he does break it) sets.

There are unforeseen factors that can throw a wrench into the entire operation. Injury is the most pivotal unforeseen factor when it comes to calculating when a player will break a record, if they ever do so. When it comes to Alex Rodriguez, however, since his first full season as a Seattle Mariner in 1996, the least amount of games that he's played has been 129. However, the 1999 season, where he played 129 games, he still managed to hit over 40 home runs. No player is immune to injury, but Rodriguez has shown the ability to avoid it, which is the key to longevity.

Another factor is if he wants to continue playing later into his 30s and eventually into his 40s. However, at the current rate that Rodriguez is going, he won't need to play into his 40s to break the home run record. If he does decide to play, as long as his body can take it he is most likely going to be the first player in Major League History to hit over 800 home runs.

This once again brings the discussion to the age old adage that every record is meant to be broken, however, there are only a few clear cut players lined up to rival the eventual record that Alex Rodriguez will set. Albert Pujols seemed to have the closest line if he stays healthy and continues his 40 home runs per year pace. We might simply not see the record chased for quite some time after that.