How Maryland Democrats Took Back the State House

Four years ago, when Republican Bob Ehrlich won Maryland's gubernatorial race, the very blue state was shocked. Up until that point, Maryland was a reliably Democratic stronghold - a Republican had not won the state house in 36 years. Republicans believed the election of Ehrlich was the beginning of a realignment in the state, but Democrats called it a fluke and blamed their loss on a weak candidate, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.

Both theories were put to the test this election day. By the end of the night, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley had soundly defeated Ehrlich. So how did O'Malley do it?

Going into the race, Governor Ehrlich had several significant advantages over his Democratic challenger. First, Ehrlich was an incumbent and no Maryland governor has lost re-election since 1954. Ehrlich also wielded the power of that incumbency with great efficiency. The Governor took every opportunity to consolidate and expand his base on talk radio, and some complained that official state documents had the air of campaign flyers for his next term in office.

Ehrlich's second advantage was his popular public image. Ehrlich was largely able to sell himself as a moderate Republican that Democrats could live with. And while his governing practices often revealed a fierce right-wing partisan, the state legislature kept his worst instincts in check. Voters were often unaware that the Governor had opposed some of the very same measures that he would later run on as part of his record during the campaign.

The third advantage Ehrlich had was his war chest. Going into the final leg of the race, Ehrlich still had $2 million in the bank even after having to return $500,000 due to a violation of campaign finance laws. O'Malley struggled with only $600,000.

But in taking the fight to the Governor, O'Malley had a few advantages of his own. A young mayor of one of America's biggest cities, O'Malley enjoyed immense popularity amongst Maryland's large African American population. O'Malley was also a telegenic candidate with a strong record of positive change on some of the nation's most pressing urban issues. To add to his momentum, he wisely chose Anthony Brown, one of the most promising black Americans in the state of Maryland or anywhere else, to be his running mate. O'Malley also rode the historic big blue wave of voter discontent that turned over control of the U.S. House of Representatives to Democrats and may, as of the time of this writing, give them the Senate as well.

Donald F.Norris, a professor of public policy at UMBC, says that in Maryland, "a good Democrat running a good campaign ought to beat a good Republican running a good campaign 99 times out of 100."

But for O'Malley, it wasn't that simple.

To win decisively, O'Malley had to not only turn out the Democratic base in urban areas, but make major inroads into the Maryland suburbs where Governor Ehrlich earned his victory in 2002. Baltimore County was of particular significance because Ehrlich served as a Baltimore County congressman, and had his roots there.

The task would have seemed impossible only a few years ago, when a complacent and anemic Maryland Democratic Party was outmatched by the Republican Get Out The Vote (GOTV) machine. But credit must be given where credit is due. Maryland Democratic Party Chairman Terry Lierman spearheaded a Coordinated Campaign, and stuck one of its headquarters smack in the middle of Baltimore County.

Candidates up and down the ticket pooled campaign resources and embarked on an aggressive GOTV operation in Baltimore County. They pounded the pavement, going door to door for days before the election, right on up until the polls closed. Ehrlich still ended up winning on his home turf, but if current precinct reports are correct, this time he won Baltimore County by less than 500 votes.

Precincts are still reporting, and absentee ballots have yet to be counted, but at the time of this writing, O'Malley looks to have won what was supposed to be a close election by at least six points. So where did the rest of the votes come from?

O'Malley picked up huge margins in the DC Metro suburbs, where Montgomery County and Prince George's County turned out big to support the Democratic ticket. O'Malley was particularly popular in Prince George's County where he won by an astonishing 79%. This was possibly attributable to O'Malley's relentless visits there on his bus tour across the state. That Bill Clinton showed up to campaign for him in Prince George's County just before the election couldn't have hurt, but there seemed to be genuine affection for Mayor O'Malley amongst PG County voters who stood in long lines for hours.

And of course, O'Malley seemed genuinely moved by the absolutely historic turnout in Baltimore City, where voters put their favorite son over the top. O'Malley was emotional in thanking what he called the greatest city in America. His voice wavered as he talked about visiting polling places in Baltimore City the night of the election, and seeing his neighbors lining up to vote, in the rain. "Let me say thank you to the people of Baltimore . . . they have never, ever, let me down."