How to Master the NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracketology

As college basketball conference play dwindles down, the most anticipated time of the year looms ahead. The NCAA basketball tournament is perhaps the biggest sporting event of the year. Whether or not your favorite team will be playing in the tournament it's still not stopping you from entering a variety of office pools in hopes of scoring the big jackpot. The unique thing about the college basketball tournament, opposed to other championship series, is that everyone gets involved and everyone becomes a basketball fan for just a few weeks. There's a certain romance involved with racking up wins or having your bracket busted on your printed sheet. However, bracketology is now an art form and if you choose your brackets wisely, you could end up with the big prize and respect of your entire office. Here is a round by round analysis on mastering the bracketology:

First round.

This is the trickiest round and most bracket sheets are tossed into the garbage after the first round. Many of the mid-major schools are playing for respect, while the larger schools underestimate their opponents. This makes up for a deadly combination of shock and awe. Start out by adopting the theory that you're not going to pick every game right. There are going to be upsets, and if you can get half of them right then you're in great shape. Go with your gut feeling on the 8-9 and 7-10 matchups. Those tend to go either way and it's impossible to anticipate the outcome. I would also pick two 11 or 12 seeds to get an upset in the first round. History has shown that 11 and 12 seeds do well the first go round. If you want to give your bracket even more breating room, then pick an upset with a 13 seed. The reason this won't hurt your bracket too much is that any 4 seed that faces a 13 seed has a chance of getting knocked out the first day and they probably won't make a run at the National Championship anyway.

Do not, I'm begging you, pick a number 16 seed over a number 1. This is bracket suicide. If you do this and the number 1 ends up demolishing the number 16 seed, two things will happen: First, you will be embarrassed by your friends. Second, one entire region of your bracket could be haunted forever by this stupid little mistake. Be safe, but it's okay to be a little reckless on the first round.

Second Round.

The second round is when reality starts to set into the tournament. The first round was an array of shocking upsets and close margin games, and you're still on the hangover from a very bloody bracket. Because the points round is so small the first round, you could afford to pick a few upsets here and there. The second round is different and really sets the tone for the rest of the tournament. My advice is to have at least three out of the four 1 seeds advance to the Sweet Sixteen. It's possible that an 8 or 9 seed will upset a number 1, but again I would move 75% of them to the third round. As for the number 2 seeds, the upsets this round are actually quite common. I suggest picking at least one upset over a number 2 seed team. Study the statistics on the team and look at their strength of schedule throughout the season. The team that has the last impressive resume will more than likely fall this round.

Pick the 3 seed to lose half of the matchups in this round. To balance out your brackets and have room for surprise, pick at least one 11 or 12 seed to reach the sweet sixteen. It's not likely a number 14 will make it to the sweet sixteen because this has only happened once in the last ten years. If you have a 15 or 16 seed advancing then you should consult with a psychiatrist.

Third round. (Sweet 16)

The third round is much more predictable and things start to fall into place. Most of your picks this round should involve the higher seeds. The higher seeds, the ones that nearly lost in that chaotic first round to the mid-major schools, will start playing better basketball and settle into the rhythm of the tournament. At least half of your Elite 8 teams should be 1,2, or 3 seeds. Every game should feature at least one team with a 4 or better seed. There is a long history of 1 seeds getting knocked off in this round. It's not likely that all four 1 seeds will make to the Elite 8. Research the number 1 seeds and find out which one has the toughest game. Study their strength of schedule and look at their record versus ranked opponents this year. The one with the least amount of wins versus ranked opponents will probably go down. I recommend picking at least a 1 seed to fall this round.

Fourth round. (Elite 8)

By this point, you know whether or not your bracket is in contention of taking the office jackpot. For me, the Elite 8 is my favorite round of the tournament. There are eight teams hoping to make it to the Final Four. Final Four teams are remembered as often as the National Championship team, so there is a tremendous boost for the programs that make it that far.

The 1 seeds in this round will start playing like it. Half of your Final Four picks should be 1 seeds. It's not uncommon for only one #1 seed to make an appearance, but for the safety of your bracket it's best to remain cautious. The other teams and games remaining should be picked by your gut feeling. However, over 90% of the Final Four teams include teams that were seeded 5 or higher. This is a staggering statistic, folks. Keep to the game plan and play smart.

Fifth round. (Final Four)

The office brackets have been narrowed down, and only a select few are mathematically within winning distance. There is not a science to picking the Final Four round. At this point in the tournament, it's most about heart than it is about skill. In the last 10 years, only half of the number 1 have reached the Championship Game. Seventy one percent of the number 2 seeds have reached the final game. As for the other seeds, the statistics decrease dramatically. All of those fancy surprise picks you had in the first and second rounds are as much as a guessing game as this round. Let me leave you with this one last statistic: In the last ten years, no team seeded lower than a 4 has won the Championship game, so think twice about who you put in the final game.

Sixth round. (Championship Game)

In some offices, the participants that are still alive and have a shot at the big jackpot must offer the number of the combined score in the game, so that if there are any ties then it can be decided this way. My recommendation is to keep the combined score of the two teams from 145-155. In a game this size, it will more than likely not get out of the seventies.

As for the picks, I usually recommend taking the high seed regardless of who they are. Just in case, study their strength of schedule and record against ranked teams. This will be a great indicator as to the quality of opponents they've had for the year. Also, study how they performed against in-conference rivals when there was a significant amount of pressure on the game. Look at the conference tournament as well.

Good luck this year and I hope you win that beautiful golden office jackpot!