How McCain Can Pull Off an Upset

Writing for the New York Post October 25, former Clinton insider Dick Morris offered his take on how John McCain could pull off an upset victory against the favored Barack Obama in the final week of the campaign.

Recalling a bit of history, Morris says, "For Harry Truman in 1948, the presidential race shifted dramatically in the final week, and it's happened three more times in the past 30 years. In 1980, Reagan came from eight points behind to a solid victory by winning his sole debate with Carter in the last week of October. In 1992, Clinton...surged ahead of Bush when Special Prosecutor Lawrence Walsh announced that he was indicting Defense Secretary Casper (Cap) Weinberger....And in 2000, Bush's three-to-four point lead in the polls was erased over the final weekend when reports surfaced that he had been cited for DWI 20 years before and had not revealed the fact to the public. Bush still won the election, of course, but Gore won the popular vote by half a point."

Now, this year seems to be different by all accounts than any of the instances mentioned by Morris, but his point is worth noting nonetheless. So what does Morris think McCain has to do in order to mount a comeback?

First, he says, use the stock market crash to highlight the tax issue. The basic point here is that given the current economic situation, "Almost every reputable economist agrees that it would be catastrophic to add to the economy's woes by raising the capital gains tax. But Obama is on record as favoring an increase from 15% to 20% and suggested during the primaries that he would consider hitting 28%."

Here's how he recommends McCain address the capital gains issue: challenge Obama to a two-year moratorium on a capital gains tax increase. If Obama goes along, McCain has demonstrated leadership. If Obama says no, or ignores McCain, then "...McCain can attribute much of the drop in the market to the fear of increased capital gains taxation once Obama takes over."

Second, bring back Jeremiah Wright. Morris says, "For reasons that are beyond me, John McCain has vowed not to make an issue out of Rev. Wright's extreme anti-American statements. But that should not stop independent expenditure and 527 groups from raising the issue.

Third, warn voters of impending socialism in America. McCain, according to Morris, "...should say that with an Obama Administration and a highly Democratic Congress, we could face a long and perhaps permanent period during which entrepreneurial, private-sector capitalism disappears...."

Now, looking at this realistically, it is doubtful that McCain would pursue such a course of action. He is already using the tax issue to some effect, so the first point made by Morris is kind of irrelevant. And since McCain is adamant about keeping Jeremiah Wright off limits, the second point made by Morris is largely irrelevant as well. For Morris' final point to have any effect, the economy would have to show some signs of improvement over the course of the next week. With low GDP numbers expected to be released, it is doubtful that McCain would be able to change current perceptions about the economy and the potential effects Obama's policy proposals would have.

So, Morris concludes, "If the Dow continues to terrify investors and distract voters from the election, it will continue to bolster Obama's candidacy and his lead. But if there is some stability in the final week before the election, there is every chance that voters will take another look at Obama and decide that he is too risky. By stressing the tax issue and the potential of an Obama regime to subvert our free enterprise system, McCain can harness the crisis and warn voters of the impact of a decision to elect the most radical candidate for president in our nation's history."