How the Mets Should Build Their 2009 Roster

The Mets have a good team but they have an amazing amount of decisions to make in the off-season. According to the contract information at the indispensable Cot's Baseball Contracts site, the Mets have 12 players signed for the 2009 season. And since one of those players is Billy Wagner, the Mets will have to sign 14 players to complete the 25-man roster for next year.

Here are the players with 2009 contracts:

Player Salary (millions)
Johan Santana $20
Carlos Beltran $18.5
Billy Wagner $10.5
David Wright $7.5
Luis Castillo $6
Jose Reyes $5.75
Brian Schneider $4.9
Scott Schoeneweis $3.6
Ramon Castro $2.5
Endy Chavez $2.05
Marlon Anderson $1.15
Mike Pelfrey $1

The number for Pelfrey is pretty much a guess. Cot's lists his deal as four years for $5.25 million, which reaches $6.6 million if he makes the 25-man roster from 2007-09. And $3.55 million was part of a signing bonus, which we have no idea how they allocate. So, in reality Pelfrey's number could be a little higher, could be a little lower but I just went for the nice round number.

That brings our total 2009 expenditure at $83.45 million. Last year's Opening Day payroll was $137,793,376 and the luxury tax this year is at $162 million. So, for the purposes of this article, we'll set the Mets' budget at $151 million, which is a 10% increase over 2008 and still leaves us under the threshold for the luxury tax. And there's probably some wiggle room there, too, as the Wilpons may allow general manager Omar Minaya some extra space due to the dead weight of Wagner's contract.

The Mets have six free agents - Moises Alou, Damion Easley, Orlando Hernandez, Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez and Fernando Tatis - who combined to make $33.01 million last year. They have a $12 million option on Carlos Delgado and the rest of the players are arbitration eligible, can have their contracts renewed or have no value to the team.

There's no point in coming up with ridiculous trade proposals to shape the 25-man roster. Many fans want to package the dreck of the roster and ship it off for something useful. That doesn't work in real life 99 percent of the time. So, in this scenario I'll aggressively shop Marlon Anderson, Luis Castillo, Brian Schneider and Scott Schoeneweis but have them included on the final roster unless I decide to eat their salary.

The main focus will be on which arbitration players to keep and which free agents to target. And these two go hand-in-hand. If the Mets offer arbitration and renew their relievers, they will have Luis Ayala, Pedro Feliciano, Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez, Schoeneweis, Joe Smith and Brian Stokes, which leaves no room for a free agent reliever.

The easiest decision is to pick up Delgado's option. That brings us to $95.45 million with $55.5 million to spend on 13 players. Then I renew Daniel Murphy and Joe Smith. The first challenging decision is which arbitration players to bring back. John Maine is a no-brainer but every single player after that is a question mark.

How many of the relievers - Ayala, Feliciano, Heilman, Sanchez and Stokes - do we want to see again? And do we want to pencil in Ryan Church as a starter after the concussions and his .219/.305/.307 line after the All-Star break? Do we want to pay him $2-3 million to be a reserve?

I am going to cut ties with Ayala and Church, the latter providing that I can get Tatis at a contract less than what Church would get in arbitration. I'm bringing back the other relievers. That leaves six players to fill out the roster. Here are the projected figures for the arb/renew players:

Player Salary (millions)
Pedro Feliciano $1.2
Aaron Heilman $1.75
John Maine $2
Daniel Murphy $0.5
Duaner Sanchez $1
Joe Smith $0.5
Brian Stokes $0.75
Tatis/Church $2.5

That comes out to $10.2 million and brings our total to $105.65 million. I now have five roster spots to fill and roughly $45 million to do it. Let's see how my team shapes up:

SP - Santana, Pelfrey, Maine
RP - Feliciano, Heilman, Sanchez, Schoeneweis, Smith, Stokes
C - Schneider, Castro
1B - Delgado
2B - Murphy, Castillo
3B - Wright
SS - Reyes
OF - Beltran, Chavez, Tatis/Church, Anderson

We need two starting pitchers, a reliever, a starting outfielder and someone who can play shortstop. I prioritize the club's needs as SP, OF, RP, SP, SS.

My top priority is C.C. Sabathia but when the bidding goes over $20 million per and seven years, I drop out. I end up bringing back former Mets minor leaguer A.J. Burnett on a five-year, $85-million deal. That leaves me four players and $28 million.

The top free agent outfielders - Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn, Raul Ibanez and Manny Ramirez - all are below-average outfielders. I'm intrigued by Milton Bradley's potential but scared off by his injury risk. Carl Crawford re-signs with the Rays and Pat Burrell wants too much money. So I end up with Dunn at four years at $18 million per. I need three players and have just $10 million left.

I made the decision to pass on Francisco Rodriguez and target a starting pitcher instead. The big deal to Dunn means that Brian Fuentes is no longer an option, either. I go back to a Diamondbacks free agent and pick up Juan Cruz on a two-year, $8-million deal, which doubles his 2008 salary and gives him an extra year to boot.

With just six million left in my budget, I bring back Damion Easley and Pedro Martinez on one-year deals. Easley gets $1.5 million and Pedro gets $4.5 million plus incentives for innings pitched.

So, here's my batting order:

Reyes
Wright
Dunn
Beltran
Delgado
Tatis
Murphy
Schneider

It's a good mix of lefty and righty bats until Murphy/Schneider and I'll have Manuel be more aggressive about getting Castro in the game assuming he's healthy for a change. That lineup will threaten to score 900 runs. I need to have the organization go on a crusade to get the media and fans to focus on Dunn's 40 homers and .386 OBP instead of his .236 average. It also depends on Murphy being able to handle second base and Tatis being valuable again.

My rotation is:

Santana
Burnett
Pelfrey
Maine
Martinez

The two keys to this rotation are if Burnett can stay healthy to throw 200 innings and if Martinez can give 150. But if/when either break down, Jon Niese is ready to take their place.

The bullpen:

Cruz
Heilman
Stokes
Sanchez
Feliciano
Smith
Schoeneweis

Obviously, Cruz is a big gamble but he's got a legitimate mid-90s fastball, has been a very effective reliever the past two seasons and is capable of getting out both lefties and righties. And I think improved bullpen management will get better performances out of the returning members. Finally, I send a message to Jerry Manuel that if he lets Schoeneweis pitch to a righty in a key spot in the game, I am firing him on the spot.

Reserves:

Anderson
Castillo
Castro
Chavez
Easley

This is still not good, but my hands were tied by the contracts to Anderson and Castillo. Hopefully Easley has one more year left in him and Chavez can still provide a little "Endy Magic" from time to time.

Obviously, the numbers are a huge guess on my part and could very well be way off. It seems like free agent pitchers keep getting bigger and bigger contracts and $17 million may not be enough to get Burnett. Maine might command more than $2 million (he made less than $0.5 million in '08). Martinez might be insulted by an incentive-laden contract and not re-sign. Cruz might be the hot property who gets bid up way past what his performance usually gets. Dunn might not sign for four years. I will not quibble if you bring up any or all of these points.

But this is how I would look to shape the roster. I view starting pitching and an outfielder as much more important than closer. I'm willing to go with a reclamation project as my fifth starter because I'm comfortable with Jon Niese if the reclamation falls flat. I'd rather have Tatis than Church because of the latter's concussion issues, his lefty bat and his horrible second half. And I'm willing to bring back most of last year's bullpen, which probably makes me a minority of one.