Here are some strategies which will help you identify sleepers or players who will simply outperform their "perceived" ranking:
1. Look For Trends In Game Stretches From The Previous Season
This may be a bit time consuming since this will require a little bit of research, but sometimes, you can tell if a player has sleeper potential by looking at game stretches where a particular player goes on a scoring surge. These scoring surges occur toward the end of the year, after a particular player such as a rookie gets some familiarity with the system.
For example, Braylon Edwards, of the Cleveland Browns, in a three game stretch in December caught 12 passes for 202 yards and 3 touchdowns. These kinds of stats are an indications that a player might do well for the upcoming season, and are guys you can usually get in the later rounds on draft day.
2. Pay Attention To Who Is Taking Over A Position
Every year, there is plenty of turnover on NFL football teams, as starters find new teams to play for. This presents perfect opportunities for new players to step up, and bring their game to the next level.
A good example of a sleeper player in this category for 2007 is Laurence Maroney, of the New England Patriots. With the departure of Cory Dillon, Maroney will take most of the snaps at running back. When he was splitting carries last year, Maroney rushed for 745 yards and 6 touchdowns. Look for him to double those numbers this year as the go to running back in New England.
3. Look At What A Player Did When He Was Healthy
Sometimes, people shy away from certain players because of low season totals due to a player getting injured. However, some of these players are guys you need to keep an eye on, as you can pick them up in the later rounds of the draft.
For example, Donavan Mcnabb, in 10 games of the 2007 season, passed for 2,647 yards and 18 touchdowns, before ending the season early due to injuries. If he had played the entire season, he was on pace to pass for approximately 4,213 yards and 28 touchdowns.
Because of his lower passing totals, Mcnabb will not be ranked high on most people's draft boards. However, IF he can overcome his injury problems and stay healthy, he will be a guy you will want on your team in 2007.
4. Pay Attention To Coaching Changes
Coaching changes can either a very good thing or a very ad thing for fantasy football roster, and will have different kinds of effects on different kinds of players.
For example, Mike Martz was known as a guy who liked to pass a lot as the head coach in Saint Louis. It was practically a guarantee that the Detroit Lions would be a good passing team once he became their offensive coordinator in 2006. Guess what happened? The Lions were 7th in the league in passing in 2006, and John Kitna passed for 4,208 yards and 21 touchdowns. Look for an even better year in 2007, in his second year under Martz.
5. Identify Players On The Rebound
Every once and a while, a player will have a great year followed by a not so great year. While some of these players stay down after they've been kicked, some get right back up. For example, after a great year in 2004 with 1,142 receiving yards, Andre Johnson of the Houston Texans slumped to only 688 receiving yards in 2005, and went down on receiver draft rankings. However, in 2006, he rebounded, with 1,145 receiving yards. Just because a player is down, doesn't mean he's out, so keep your eye out for players on the rebound.
Published by Keith Riffle
Keith works part time as an internet marketer, and resides in Omaha, NE. View profile
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