How to Statistically Build a Winning Team

Baseball teams win games by scoring more runs than their opponents. Sounds like a simple concept, and in reality, it is a simple concept. But what specifically, should teams be doing to structure themselves so they can score more runs than their opponents?

The answers are all in the statistics, and teams should take a two-pronged approach.

1) Score as many runs as possible on offense.

How is this accomplished? When looking at runs scored, the stat that stands out the most is always OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage). The teams with the highest average OPS each year, are the teams that score the most runs.

In the American League in 2006, 8 teams scored over 800 runs. It's no coincidence that they were also the top 8 teams in average OPS. The Yankees had the highest OPS at .824, and they scored the highest amount of runs in baseball (930). In the National League, 5 teams scored over 800 runs, and were likewise the top 5 teams in average OPS. The Phillies had the highest OPS in the National League last year at .794, and scored the most runs of any NL team (865).

So teams need to stock themselves with hitters who can get on base and hit HR's. It's that simple. The more HR hitters you have who can get on base, the more runs you will score.

2) Give up as few runs as possible.

How is this accomplished? When looking at runs allowed, the stat that stands out the most is ERA. The teams with the lowest average ERA's, are the teams which allow the fewest runs each year.

In the National League in 2006, 4 teams gave up fewer than 750 runs (751 for the Dodgers). The four teams also led the league in lowest ERA, with the Padres having the lowest team ERA at 3.88, while allowing the fewest runs in the NL (679). In the American League, there were also 4 teams which allowed fewer than 750 runs, and they too led the AL in lowest ERA, with the Tigers having the lowest team ERA in the AL at 3.85, while allowing the fewest runs in baseball at 675.

So teams need to stock their staffs with pitchers who have ERA's below the League average ERA (LERA). The more pitchers on a given team who pitch to below the LERA, the less runs that team will allow, giving the team a better chance to win games.

Both concepts sound so simple, stock your team with hitters who can get on base and hit HR's, and pitchers who pitch to below the LERA. Are most Major League teams aware of this and following these simple concepts? The answer is a resounding No!

Over the winter the following free agent transactiosn occurred:

Adam Eaton (108% of LERA in career), Jason Marquis (106%), and Gil Meche (105%) were given guaranteed contracts worth a combined $100.5 million, while all three have career ERA's well above the LERA's.

Mark DeRosa (.735 career OPS), Alex Gonzalez (.684), Julio Lugo (.742), and Gary Matthews (.755) were given guaranteed contracts worth a combined $113 million, while all having career OPS that are well below the league average OPS.

Any team in baseball that is willing to spend the time to find hitters who can hit HR's and get on base, and pitchers who pitch to below the LERA, can vastly improve their teams winning percentage.