How an Undefeated Team Could Have a Top 5 NFL Draft Pick

Any football fan can tell you about the New England Patriots "Camera-gate" scandal: about 8 minutes into the September 9, 2007 game against the New York Jets, a sideline employee of the New England Patriots had a handheld video camera confiscated from him; the league subsequently fined Head Coach Bill Belichick $500,000, fined the team $250,000 and stripped the organization of a draft pick in 2008. The Commissioner specified in the discipline that should the Patriots make the playoffs, the team would lose its first round pick.

Most football fans can also explain to you the principle behind the NFL Draft: the worst teams the previous year choose first, the best teams choose last. The Super Bowl runners up choose 31^st; the Super Bowl winners choose 32^nd.

Even the most casual of casual football fans has hard the suggestion that the New England Patriots could, in fact, run the table on their schedule, winning every game up to and through Super Bowl XLII. If that were to come to pass, the 2007 edition Patriots would not only be the best team of 2007, but arguably the best team of all time.

How, then, could the Patriots be the possible owners of one of the top 5 draft picks in 2008?

On the first day of the 2007 NFL Draft, the New England Patriots acquired Wide Receiver Randy Moss from the Oakland Raiders for the 110^th selection in the 2007 draft (a fourth round selection). The day before, the Pats acquired that pick from the San Francisco 49ers along with their first round 2008 draft pick for the Patriots first round pick (28^th overall) in the 2007 draft.

In essence, the Patriots gave up the 28^th round pick in the 2007 NFL Draft for Randy Moss (signing him to a $3 Million deal) and San Francisco's first round pick.

With the 28^th pick in that draft, the 49ers chose Joe Staley, an offensive tackle from Michigan State University. The Raiders used the 100^th pick to choose Cornerback John Bowie.

In essence, the Raiders traded Randy Moss and a $10 Million salary for a player who has played in exactly 1 game thus far and recorded no tackles. Moss, on the other hand, in 9 games has recorded 56 receptions, 924 yards, and 12 touchdowns - setting the Patriots' franchise record for touchdowns in a season.

As it stands after Week 10 of the NFL season, the 49ers spot in the draft would be 4^th, behind the winless Miami Dolphins, and the 1 win St. Louis Rams and New York Jets. The Oakland Raiders are barely better, standing 5^th because they have a better point differential.

Commissioner Goodell's discipline stripping the Patriots of A first round pick stripped the team of THEIR first round pick - meaning the slot they earn through their play - not the slot they gained when making the player/draft pick trade.

The deal that helped construct the Patriots juggernaut also set in motion the seemingly incongruous possibility of an undefeated Patriots team choosing in the Top 5 spots in the 2008 NFL Draft.

The possibility of an undefeated team picking that high rest on several, highly improbable confluences of events: The Patriots have 7 more regular season games and would have 3 playoff games to win; They would have to keep the San Francisco pick and not trade for several others elsewhere in the draft (this seems unlikely given the team's propensity to stockpile draft picks and their free agent class they would likely want to sign); and San Francisco would have to continue losing. Any one of these is possible, but the confluence is unlikely.