How Well Will Japanese Baseball Import Akinori Iwamura Do in the Major Leagues This Year?

In order to try and determine how Akinori Iwamura will do this year in the Major Leagues, I've taken the MLB stats of the Japanese players already playing in the Majors and compared them to the stats the Japanese players had in Japan. This is far from a perfect way to figure out how Iwamura will do, but it will give us a rough idea of how Japanese players stats translate in the Majors.

The six stats I'm comparing are, batting average (BA), on base percentage (OBP), slugging percentage (SLG), Run average (calculated out just like batting average, except you use runs instead of hits), HR average, and RBI average.

Listed first is each players stats in Japan, followed by their same category stats in the Majors. In order for each player are BA, OBP, SLG, Run Avg, HR Avg, and RBI Avg.

Ichiro Suzuki - .355/.331 (93.2%), .418/.376 (90%), .524/.438 (83.6%), .162/.164 (101%), .032/.015 (47%), .141/.088 (62%).

Kaz Matsui - .309/.266 (86%), .361/.318 (88.1%), .484/.379 (78.3%), .167/.132 (79%), .032/.013 (41%), .133/.097 (73%).

Hideki Matsui - .304/.297 (97.7%), .413/.372 (90.1%), .582/.485 (83.3%), .197/.165 (84%), .073/.039 (53%), .194/.179 (92%).

Tadahito Iguchi - .271/.280 (103.3%), .342/.347 (102%), .471/.430 (91.3%), .165/.160 (97%), .047/.031 (66%), .160/.128 (80%).

Kenji Johjima - .298/.291 (97.7%), .332/.352 (94.3%), .513/.451 (87.9%), .146/.121 (83%), .052/.036 (69%), .177/.150 (85%).

Here are the averages for the five players:

Batting Average - 95.6%

OBP - 92.9%

SLG - 84.9%

Run Average - 88.8%

HR Average - 55.2%

RBI Average - 78.4%

Here are Iwamura's stats in Japan: 3580 AB's, 550 Runs, 188 HR's, 570 RBI's, .300 BA, .366 OBP, .519 SLG, .154 Run average, .053 HR average, .159 RBI average.

If we figure on 600 AB's this year for Iwamura and do the math generated above, his stats might look like this: 82 Runs/ 18 HR's/ 75 RBI's/ .287 BA/ .340 OBP/ .441 SLG.

Not terrible stats, but Iwamura is unlikely to be a star for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

(What's interesting to note, is that the Japanese hitters have the most difficulty with their HR stats. Probably a product of the smaller parks prevalent in Japan, where it is easier to hit HR's. They have the easiest time reproducing Batting Averages.)