How Will Early Voting Impact the Decision on Election Day?

This Tuesday, November 4, the United States voter will finally get to have our say in who will take over for George W. Bush and become the 44^th President of the United States. The push to get out the vote has been strenuous on both the Democratic and Republican sides of the contest and coupled with the country's economic problems, the lingering war in Iraq, and the health care crisis, it is anticipated that Americans will vote in record numbers. The percentage of those eligible to cast a ballot who have taken advantage of early voting is estimated at a staggering 30% or higher. One of many academics who are keeping tabs on the vote is political scientist Michael P. McDonald of George Mason University. McDonald says that as of Nov 1, as many as 20 million people have all ready cast their ballots. The long lines at polling stations reported in all 31 states that allow early voting clearly indicated the level of interest Americans have in the outcome of this presidential race. Waits of more than 2 hours are now typical in several states including Florida, California, and Senator McCain's home state of Arizona.

In Florida, one of the hotly contested battleground states, the early voter turnout has stunned officials. As of October 30, absentee voting has all ready surpassed the 2004 total with four days to go. According to the Annenberg Public Policy Center, in the 2004 election approximately 20% of eligible voters cast their ballots early. This was up from the 14% reported in 2000. If the numbers hold, it is expected that as many as 45% of those eligible will vote prior to the November 4 election day. This statistic will surely increase the overall voting percentages, which can only benefit the country.

It has long been a sore point that so few Americans exercise their right to vote. Perhaps instead of referring to it as our "right" to vote, it would convey a more appropriate meaning if Americans thought of it as our responsibility. The sentiment that a single vote will not affect the outcome of any political race is often sited as an excuse for not managing the trip to the polls. The belief that since the popular vote does not determine the winner in a presidential election, as illustrated in the 2000 Bush-Gore campaign, there is no point in voting is misguided and leads to a disruption of the process. A single ballot can absolutely make a difference when electing the next president. The electoral vote given to the candidate is based on the number of votes actually cast for that individual. In 2004, Iowa's seven electoral votes went to President George W. Bush; however, it was an extremely tight race. The percentage of votes Bush actually received was within .06 percentage points of those John Kerry received. It can certainly be argued that had more of Iowa's 2.2 million eligible voters exercised their right to vote, the outcome could have been in Kerry's favor. As it was, only 1.5 million Iowans went to the polls and all seven of their electoral votes went to Bush. The difference in actual votes was only 10,059. There is no slight to Iowa intended here. It is only an illustration of how important a single ballot can be. Although the 2004 election had record turnout, other states had similar participation rates, which resulted in millions of votes wasted.

In years past, the weather has played a significant role in the number of voters actually showing up at the polls. The idea of standing for hours in long lines in rain, snow or extreme cold has discouraged many from making the trip. Perhaps with more access to early voting, an increased awareness of the importance of a single vote, and a renewed belief that participating in an election is a responsibility all Americans share, a more representative government will emerge.

Sources:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/world/bal-md.enthusiasm01nov01,0,5999644.story.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2008/11/01/20081101earlyvoting1101.html

http://www.annenbergpublicpolicycenter.org/NewsDetails.aspx?myId=304

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/campaign-2008/story/751034.html

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/IA/P/00/