How Will H1N1 (Swine Flu) Affect Our Economic Recovery in 2009

The World Health Organization (WHO) has given an estimate recently that around 2 billion people world wide are infected with the H1N1 (swine flu). That translates into an alarming 1/3 of the worlds population.

Most of the infected patients will experience only mild flu like symptoms. Those symptoms include the following; cough, chills, diarrhea in 25% of patients, body aches, headaches, dizziness, fatigue, fever, runny and stuffy nose, sore throat, and vomiting. The flu tends to last 7 days to 14 days from the first signs of your symptoms.

The ordinary flu season will on average kill an estimated 250,000 to 500,000 people world wide, each year. During one of the more recent flu pandemics in 1968 called the "Hong Kong flu" an estimated 1 million people perished from the flu.

In the United States as of August 2009 CDC has reported at least 477 deaths from swine flu H1N1. During the summer months flu activity will typically decrease. However, CDC has reported widespread H1N1 activity in the following states; Alaska, Hawaii, Maine and South Carolina. CDC also reports regional activity in the following states; Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, North Carolina and West Virginia.

Locally in the state of Massachusetts, as of 8/17/2009 the Massachusetts Department of Health as reported the 11^th death of patients in this state from H1N1 (swine flu). That 26 year old victim had no underlying medical conditions present at the time of his death.

(WHO) projects that in this up coming flu season in the Northern Hemisphere that you could see a doubling of H1N1 patients every two to three days. You should get two flu shots, one for the regular flu and the H1N1 flu shot, that will be available anywhere from October to December.

What will be the economic impact of H1N1 (swine flu) on our economic recovery for the 3^rd and 4^th quarter for 2009? Most patients will be bed ridden any where from 7 to 14 days from the first signs of the flu. That means that consumers will not be out shopping stimulating the economy. The consumer is already holding back spending due to our current economic conditions that are not related to the swine flu.

The average hourly work week is hovering around 32 to 33.5 hours per week. Most employees only have 3/5 sick days per year or some have no sick days at all. With the symptoms lasting anywhere from 7 to 14 days those employees will be losing out on pay. Consumer spending will be slowing down in the 3^rd and 4^th quarter due to H1N1, as well as the current economic environment.

Our government officials are recommending to our employers to take some of the following steps. To ensure the continuity of their business employers should be cross training their employees. Employers should expect large absenteeism due to the H1N1. Employers should not penalize employee for calling in sick.

H1N1 flu seems to affect our younger population more than the "baby boomer generation". Other segments of our population that are at risk include school age children, pregnant woman, people with underlying medical conditions, and seniors.

So far we have seen wide spread H1N1 activity this year in boarding schools, day care providers, summer camps, military installations, schools and universities. Other affected institutions include the prison systems as well.

You could be seeing large scale school closings that could put a major burden on families who have to find substitutes for care for their children. Or the parents could be forced to stay home with their children.

You need to monitor the spread of H1N1 flu and follow the impact on our economic recovery and your investments as well. Just look what happen in Mexico during the spring time when the government shut down the economy.