Huckabee Leads Republicans in Presidential Nomination Race as Iowa Caucus Nears

According to the Rasmussen Report as of November 28, 2007, an article entitled Republican Iowa Caucus, gave the lead to Huckabee at 28 percent, with Romney a close second at 25 percent in today's polls.

The latest reported through a telephone survey found former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee to be leading the way in the Republican race. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney does not have a long ways to go according to the article. Next in line for the same poll are Rudy Giuliani with 12% and then Fred Thompson at 11%. Ron Paul, John McCain, Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter all have 5% or less of the remaining votes.

Huckabee has been climbing the latter concerning support from the Republican side. The 28% status for Huckabee is a twelve point climb compared to the prior month's survey.

The majority of Huckabee's supporters are Evangelical Christians with 48%. Mitt Romney also appeals to evangelical Christians, despite his Mormon background, attaining 16% of the evangelical Christian vote.

This poll, of course, has no guaranteed implications concerning the upcoming poll. Most voters reported there is a good chance they may change their mind. However, 53% of Huckabee's voters claim they will be faithful through the end to vote for him, according to the Rasmussen report.

Among those who will be taking part in the Iowa Republican Caucus, Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani are all viewed favorably. As far as current negative concerns, 20% of Iowa voters offered a negative assessment of Huckabee and just 21% have a negative opinion of Romney. Unfortunately for Giuliani, 30% of the voters have negative opinions of the candidate.

Another Rasmussen article, entitled What if Huckabee wins Iowa? asks some tough questions regarding the candidate's longterm plans. This article is also dated Wednesday, November 28, 2007. The article looks at the trend from favored Mitt Romney to the rise of Huckabee in Iowa polls.

What exactly would a Huckabee win in the Iowa polls do to the Mitt Romney campaign? Clearly, it would hurt the Romney campaign significantly. However, the climb of Huckabee has been such a recent change that it is not clear whether or not he will actually be able to hang on to the lead until caucus time.

Even if Romney is able to turn the polls around and win in Iowa, even a close call may have a negative impact on the overall campaign.

While Huckabee is a fairly new household name in the Republican race, winning the Iowa poll could dramatically affect the overall Iowa campaign as more and more voters will begin to hear about and question whether or not Huckabee is the right candidate for the Republican Party.

With the caucus only 6 weeks away, it is still anyone's game. However, in order to take the lead the Romney campaign is definitely up against some stiff competition.

Of course, following the Iowa Caucus is the trip to New Hampshire just a few days later.

Issues concerning Iowan's, according to the Rasmussen Report, include national security which is currently the number one concern. In Iowa, 36% of national security voters plan to vote for Huckabee while only 20% of the same voting group prefers Romney.

Also, a Huckabee victory in Iowa may lead to enough of damage in the Romney campaign that Thompson and McCain may actually have a chance to make their voices heard.

Of course, a victory for Huckabee may also leave other candidates without much of a chance to speak as the focus will be more on Huckabee himself.

For more information from the Rasmussen Reports, visit www.rasmussenreports.com.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Sources:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/iowa/republican_iowa_caucus
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/what_if_huckabee_wins_iowa