Hurricane Gustav to Haunt GOP Convention?

The approach of Hurricane Gustav not only threatens the inhabitants of Louisiana, but stands as an unwelcome reminder of many of the failures of the government under Bush to respond to the tragedy that was Hurricane Katrina.

Gustav's timing is profound, as the Republican party gears up for their convention, wherein McCain stands to be coronated as the GOP's choice to take on Senator Barack Obama, who enjoyed much praise following his speech last week at the Democratic National Convention. Obama has used the issue of Bush's policies over the past eight years as a centerpiece of his campaign, criticizing McCain for agreeing with Bush "90% of the time" and intimating that a difference of just 10% is not something the American people can afford.

Gustav's arrival conjures pained memories of one of the Bush regime's most publicized errors, as the government's response to Katrina was viewed by many as slow and insufficient on many fronts, leading to Kanye West's charge that "George Bush doesn't care about black people". Katrina nearly ranks with the Iraq war as far as public dissatisfaction goes, and remains among the most prominent black eyes the Bush administration has struggled to endure during its second term. Criticism over the handling of Katrina has come from all sides and has never really tailed off, and that criticism's vehemence is likely to be renewed as Gustav prepares for landfall.

It's likely that the negative impact of these critiques will be shouldered by McCain, whether naturally or thanks to the inferences of Obama'a camp, who won't miss this opportunity to point out yet again that "Change" is something we all need to believe in, and that McCain purely represents "more of the same". The inference will be that natural disasters such as Katrina and Gustav will provoke similar inept responses from a McCain headed government, even if this is never directly expressed by the Democrats.

Despite these dangers and the slings and arrows likely to come, on the flip side Gustav perversely represents an opportunity for the GOP to redeem themselves and the McCain camp to step away from the ghastly specter of the Bush Katrina response. A strong reaction from McCain on Gustav now could act as a credit to his camp and help rather than harm.... although an effort that is too transparent may damn the GOP's reputation on the issue further. The coming weeks will reveal all, and leave the McCain camp either reeling or jostling shoulder to shoulder with Obama in the polls.