Hurricane Kyle Headed for New England; More to Follow?

Tropical Storm Kyle is still far out in the Atlantic, but the latest path projections from NOAA show that Maine and the Cape Cod region stand a better than 40% chance of sustaining direct hits. Since Tropical Storm Kyle is expected to strengthen into Hurricane Kyle late Saturday, Kyle may be one of the rare hurricanes that makes landfall in New England while still packing sustained hurricane force winds. The last hurricane to accomplish that was Hurricane Bob in 1991. Is Hurricane Kyle's aim at New England fueled by global warming? Can New Englanders expect more hurricanes like Hurricane Kyle or worse in the future?

An Expert Discusses Hurricane Kyle

I put these questions and others to Dr. Amanda Staudt, a climate scientist with the National Wildlife Foundation. Prior to joining the National Wildlife Federation, Dr. Staudt directed the National Academies Climate Research Committee. Dr. Staudt holds a Doctorate in atmospheric sciences and an A.B. in environmental engineering and sciences from Harvard. I chose to ask these questions of her, because she has recently published a detailed report of the effect of global warming on hurricanes called "The Increasing Vulnerability to Hurricanes: Global Warming's Wake-up Call for the Gulf and Atlantic States." The report concludes that warming oceans are causing hurricanes to become stronger. That fact coupled with a higher population density and more development in coastal areas in the United States puts more people and property in danger from Hurricanes. I wanted to find out if New England is one of those places.

Is Hurricane Kyle the First of Many?

Dr. Staudt told me that although we are indeed "moving into a period of more hurricane activity, in part due to a natural cycle and in part fueled by global warming." It is too early to say whether Hurricane Kyle is more than a fluke event. She went on to explain "Tropical storms are typically weakening once they leave the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. The warmer tropical waters caused by global warming mean that storms will likely be stronger as they begin their journey northward. On the other hand, there's some evidence that storms will move more slowly on average, so they will have more time to weaken by the time they make landfall. Those hurricanes that cause a lot of damage in New England must be fast moving. Even if global warming leads to an uptick in New England landfalling hurricanes, they will remain a rare but still serious hazard for the region."

Atlantic Hurricane Basin Heating Up in 2008

Since global warming is on everyone's mind now, I asked Dr. Staudt whether this year's seemingly high level of hurricane and tropical storm activity including Kyle had a corresponding increase in water temperature in the Atlantic. She told me that the "sea surface temperature in the Atlantic [is] only slightly higher than the long-term average," In terms of Tropical Storm Kyle, although it may strengthen into a hurricane, once Hurricane Kyle passes "waters north of the Gulf Stream, which generally turns eastward to flow across the Atlantic south of New England," the water will be too cool to allow Hurricane Kyle to continue to strengthen. In other words, once Hurricane Kyle passes out of the Gulf Stream, we'll already have seen Hurricane Kyle's peak strength if it continues to head toward New England.

Potential Damage from Hurricane Kyle in New England

Dr. Staudt cautioned that the rarity of hurricanes making landfall in New England makes it more difficult for residents to stay on guard for the damage they can cause. She says, "surveys indicate that most households are ill-prepared for a hurricane and generally do not accurately perceive the risk." As you will remember from a previous article of mine, that can lead to people taking foolish risks.

Lobster Industry at Risk from Hurricanes like Kyle?

When I think about the coastal waters of New England being buffeted by hurricane force wind and waves, I worry about such traditional New England activities like the lobster business. Dr. Staudt explained that "Hurricanes and other strong storms can temporarily reduce the salinity of coastal areas due to large influxes of fresh water from rainfall and river runoff, causing problems for coastal species that prefer more saline water. Following large storms, lobsters will typically move to more favorable habitat, typically deeper water that has a higher salinity. There can be significant lobster mortality if the freshwater influx is large enough and rapid enough to cut lobsters off from the higher salinity waters they need to survive."

Summary of Hurricane Outlook for New England

So in summary, although the warmer Atlantic waters due to global warming will cause more intense hurricanes to form, New England is insulated from the worst effects by the cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream. However, particularly fast moving hurricanes, like Hurricane Kyle, could retain much of their strength as far north as New England. With proper emergency planning, such as preplanned evacuation routes, disaster can be avoided even when strong hurricanes do make it to New England.

Additional Sources:
National Hurricane Center: nhc.noaa.gov