Hybrid and Electric Cars - Inevitable Change on the Horizon

Humanity is soon to see a global change to an industry that touches, and shapes, the lives of millions. Going to work, getting groceries from the store, picking up the kids from school, going to college, we all know the story: our cars play significant roles in our lives, often a daily consideration in making decisions.

Of course, "soon" will vary country to country and region to region depending on political and economic conditions, so if sweeping change is coming, and coming "soon", the question is how soon is that?

In some sense, soon has already come and gone. Electric vehicles have seen use with public transportation, Police, and utilities for a number of years in some urban settings.

Individuals with the wherewithal to afford earlier models, such as the actor Tom Hanks, have been driving hybrid cars and electric cars for several years. There are links to two video clips at the bottom of this article where Tom Hanks talks about the electric cars he drives, and why he believes in the technology.

In this article I talk about change and why it's inevitable. I will discuss government support and what will be important to you as a consumer in your first electric car purchase in a subsequent article.

Electric cars are closer than you think, even if we have several years of infrastructure development ahead of us. Currently, most of us view hybrid cars and electric cars with a bit of curiosity, then promptly dismiss them.

However, more evidence the wave of change is approaching is seen with the introduction of the Nissan Leaf later this year in 2010, with the Chevy Volt not far behind. This suggests the idea of profitability for manufacturers has improved to realistic proportions.

The Nissan Leaf isn't a hybrid car like the Toyota Prius or Honda Insight. It is a 100% emissions free vehicle (no combustion engine of any kind), powered by a Nissan developed Lithium Ion battery pack. Stated range is 100 miles per charge. Current information suggests the Nissan Leaf will retail for approximately $30,000, though Nissan is quick to point out a hard figure hasn't been released yet.

The Chevy Volt is a 100% electric drive train car, but isn't zero emission. The Chevy Volt will drive for 40 miles on battery power alone, at which point a gas powered generator kicks in providing power for another 400 miles on an 8 gallon tank (50mpg). The Chevy Volt is also expected to cost several thousand dollars more than the Nissan Leaf.

History and what it teaches us

We can learn from history, if we bother to think beyond the latest episode of Law and Order on TV. Let's look at some past technology advances that altered daily life across the world, once they completed rolling out.

The Telegraph

The Telegraph was developed between 1794 with Claude Chapp using flags and line of sight and 1844 with Samuel Morse, with the message "What hath God Wrought?" transmitted across 40 miles between Washington and Baltimore in Morse Code.

Between 1794 and 1844 both British and American inventors were experimenting with the telegraph using a variety of methods.

The key point was in 1825 when British inventor William Sturgeon invented the electro-magnet.

In 1835, Samuel Morse used the electro-magnet to produce code on paper, then refined his invention over the next three years (Morse Code).

Congress then funded the construction of an experimental Telegraph Line from Washington to Baltimore.

With the success of the Telegraph demonstrated on May 24, 1844, the Telegraph spread rapidly across the country. Of interest here, Telegraph Lines predominantly spread by leveraging Railroad right-of-ways.

The Telegraph proved so useful in everyday life, the Postal Telegraph System was created in 1881.

Now let's look at what that short snippet from history teaches us:

Progress and Inventions may hinge on a key technological enabler.

Once that enabler is discovered or made viable, real momentum can occur. For the Telegraph it was discovery of the electromagnet. For electric cars it has always been batteries.

Competition is often a key aspect of progress.

Note Morse wasn't the only one working on long distance communication at that time. Electric cars and battery technology have been in development world-wide for more than two decades.

Proliferation of new technology into everyday life will be gated by accessibiliy (infrastructure).

For the Telegraph it was installation of telegraph lines across thousands of miles, to designated stations, requiring the training of operators. For the electric car it's the need for "electric stations", home charge capability, and new servicing needs at dealers and auto shops, not to mention the changes and retooling auto-manufacturers must consider.

Proliferation of new technology will be blocked, or aided, by adjacent technology or organizations.

For the Telegraph it was the railroad, as well as government grants. For the electric car it's the Oil and Automotive Industries, which, it's safe to say, won't help the proliferation of electric cars until the day there is profit in it for them. Assistance can be found in legislation and government grants for the study and advancement of electric car technology.

Once technology and infrastructure considerations are met, at least to a degree enabling insertion into society, proliferation is inevitable if that technology is serving a real need and is capable of profit in the private sector.

Proliferation will accelerate as that technology embeds itself into society and everyday lives

It might take months, years, or even a decade or two, but make no mistake: Once change gets into third gear you are coming up on 70mph and fifth gear in a blink.

That's what happened with the Telegraph, that's what is happening with electric cars.

The Personal Computer and the Internet

Let me put it in more contemporary terms, which a great many of you will appreciate having experienced the change within your lifetimes: PCs, the Internet, ATMs, and E-mail. I was learning COBOL and RPG on punch cards in college. PCs didn't exist, and neither did ATMs, general Internet access, or e-mail.

What was the key enabler for the computer industry and the Internet, as the electromagnet was for the Telegraph? The Personal Computer.

What was the adjacent industry leveraging a component technology from the computing industry? Cable Television and the manner in which it spread along with Ethernet networking.

What is the result today?

Cable Television and ISP providers have spread like wildfire across virgin territory, PCs and PC software are household items, ATMs can be found near anywhere, e-mail is now a mainstream communication method; the Internet has completely blown the roof off of information access.

And that's only in about two decades or so.

So, like it or not, electric cars are not only not going away, they will be seen in increasing numbers. And in spite of Toyota's recent problems with the Prius, that process already started with the introduction of hybrid cars by major manufacturers, and the government funding of studies and programs for alternative energy and research and development of electric cars.

Given what history teaches us, I'm of the belief electric cars as mainstream vehicles are coming sooner than many of us might believe. We just don't have the freedom to be as indiscriminate with fossil-fuels anymore.

But it's not the same! There were no telegraphs when the telegraph was invented, and there were no PCs when the PC was invented! We already have cars; we don't need a different kind!

Believe it or not people, the fish-bowl called Earth does have a finite size and finite fossil fuel resources.

The days of the gasoline engine are starting to come to a close as an everyday convenience, even though they will continue to be around for some time yet. But change has started, and the day of the electric car is inevitable.

And the largest change we will need to adjust to isn't the electric or hybrid car itself. Electric cars perform much better than many people believe. The largest change will be Infrastructure transformation to make the electric car viable on a daily basis (charging stations and modules in our homes, on the streets, and at our workplaces).

Interesting Links

AC Propulsion is a well respected electric car R & D firm located in California developing technology for the electric car industry, as well as their own products. It's very cool stuff: AC Propulsion

Actor Tom Hanks certainly believes in electric cars. He has produced a small video series and is promoting the eBox electric car, the latest offering from AC Propulsion. earth2tech and Tom Hanks, also see him on: The Late Show

The New York Times site and electric vehicle articles and links provided there: New York Times

This article from Peter Whoriskey of The Washington Post highlights a danger to a quiet car: Deadly Silence

Sony Pictures Classic produced a documentary titled "Who Killed the Electric Car?" The DvD can be purchased from their site, and a preview clip on the main page is at: Sony Pictures

The Nissan Leaf

The Chevy Volt

Sources:

About.com: Telegraph Inventors

Merrill Douglas, Government Technology, March 15, 2010

Forbes Black, EV World, AC Propulsion - The Quiet Revolutionaries (Oct 27, 2009)

GM-Volt Q & A