Idaho Presidential Polls

Presidential polls were conducted in Idaho during the last part of August, the week leading up to the Democratic National Convention. According to Greg Smith and Associates, John McCain is leading Barrack Obama by a margin of 52% to 29%. According to Idaho's presidential polls in Idaho, McCain's lead ranks third in states supporting McCain.

Only Utah and Wyoming have larger margins of support. Idaho voters are supporting McCain more than his home state of Arizona. Other inter-mountain west states' polls, such as Montana, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, are showing a dead heat between McCain and Obama. However, according to Smith's presidential poll in Idaho, even 35% of registered Democrats will vote for McCain in November.

These numbers are not new to Idaho. Smith said the high Republican numbers are not a surprise since Republicans control all but one of the State and Federal elected offices. The Idaho Legislature is heavily Republican and conservative. In another poll posted by Daily Kos, the numbers are 53% to 37% for McCain. However, KOS pointed out Democrats should not despair because Obama is performing better than Kerry did in 2004. In that election, Bush crushed Kerry in Idaho by the margin of 69%-30%.

What do the numbers mean? In November McCain will win the four electoral votes up for grabs in Idaho, and he will win by a double digit margin. However, the Republican victory will be a smaller margin than in 2004. Why? Barrack Obama visited Idaho before the Idaho caucuses. He packed the Taco Bell Arena in the state capitol of Boise with 16,000 screaming supporters, and he set up campaign headquarters throughout the state. Because of his efforts, Idaho experienced record turnout for its Democratic Primary Caucuses on February 5.

His efforts also paid off financially. As of the end of June according to Kevin Richert, Obama had raised $375,586 to $228, 938 raised by McCain. McCain has not generated much enthusiastic response in Idaho. His choice of Sarah Palin, who graduated from the University of Idaho and was born in Sandpoint, as a running mate does bring some praise from Idahoans.

Idaho will not swing from being an ultra conservative state to a blue state in this election. However, Obama has caused some disgruntled Democrats and some hidden Independents to start to become more vocal. This is evident in the Senatorial campaign for retiring Larry Craig's seat, where Democrat Larry LaRocco is closing in on Republican Jim Risch. Will there be a Democratic Senator from Idaho for the first time since 1980? The key is whether the enthusiasm Obama generated in February can be rekindled in November bring about some change, if not nationally, at least locally.

KOS, "ID-Sen: Shockingly Close," Daily KOS: The Sate of the Nation

Richert, Kevin. "Obama Out Raises McCain." IdahoSatesman.com

Smith, Smith. " McCain Well Ahead..." Greg Smith and Associates News Release