Illegal Immigration and Unemployment

The secure-borders of the United States of America have been an issue of discussion that has risen to new heights recently. Questions have been raised to who and how many people are really coming into our nation each year illegally.Are there variables that effect who comes into our nation, and how many we allow? What does the government do to increase border enforcement? What are variables that motivate the government to tighten or lessen border enforcement? I will examine the theory of Gordon H. Hanson and Antonio Spilimbergo which examines the relationship between sectoral shock and border enforcement. I will then modify Hanson and Spilimbergo's theory to examine the relationship between unemployment and border enforcement (2001).

In the article titled "Political economy, sectoral shocks, and border enforcement" Hanson and Spilimbergo examine the relationship between the effects of sectoral shocks in the political economy and the intensity of border enforcement (2001, 612). The independent variable of Hanson and Spilimbergo's theory is sectoral shocks. The dependent variable identified is border enforcement.When sectoral shocks, private sector interest groups fund politicians, increase, the border enforcement will decrease creating a negative relationship. This logic is based upon the assumptions that as need for illegal immigrants in the workforce increases, those industries will increase their funding of politicians with the encouragement that the politicians will help to decrease border enforcement. So we assume that the sectoral shocks sum, Hanson and Spilimbergo's independent variable, greatly influences the dependent variable in a negative relationship (2001).

The theory of Hanson and Spilimbergo has great strengths in the area of empirical data.The theory uses data gathered from the INS, Immigration and Naturalization Service, and the DOL, US Department of Labor. It takes an empirical analysis using relative commodity prices, provided by the DOL, and increases with the effects these variables have on border enforcement through the measurement of apprehensions of illegal immigrants, provided by the INS (2001). There measurability is excellent and their variables are well defined and clear.The theory's major strengths come from the correlation between the economies effect on the mechanism of political lobbying in politics, and the politicians' effects on border enforcement. The theory's weakness lies in its underestimation of the power of labor unions on American politics.They also do not examine the variable of American public opinion, based on the publics' economic circumstances, and its large influence on American politics.Hanson and Spilimbergo only focus on large companies or producers in the sectors that employ illegal immigrants. They assume that the financial power of these large corporate-funded interest groups would always outweigh the power of the media and the publics' opinions.

After examination of Hanson and Spilimbergo's theory on sectoral shock and border enforcement I will modify their theory to bring new perspective and depth to the subject of illegal immigration. I theorize that the unemployment of American citizens will have a greater effect on the border enforcement then sectoral shock. My theory is that the independent variable of unemployment will positively affect the dependent variable of border enforcement. The theory examines the logic that when unemployment decreases so does border enforcement. Unemployment is best classified as persons that do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2005). When unemployment is low people are satisfied and feel secure with the American economy. They don't pressure the government, media, or interest groups to increase border enforcement.When unemployment is high they feel threatened and cheated out of work by illegal immigrants and then encourage stronger border enforcement.Border enforcement is best described as the regulation of the American border by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), formerly the INS, through the exclusion of all undocumented or unauthorized persons pursuing entrance into the official borders of the United States.This can be measured and defined by the data of apprehensions of illegal or undocumented persons into the country by way of linewatch, apprehension at border, or interior capture, apprehension within the country.

My theory adds new perspective to the existing ideas that influence from economic driven interest groups change border enforcement.My theory examines the idea that unemployment represents the economy in a large way and also the public opinion.Thus it is a greater measurement of both the influence of interest groups from average citizens, labor unions, and companies and producers with a need for an undocumented workforce.I will use data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to examine quantitatively the data on America's unemployment rate over a ten-year period. To measure border enforcement I will use a quantitative analysis over a ten-year period of apprehensions of both linewatch, apprehensions at borders, and interior, apprehensions within the borders.I will use apprehensions over a ten-year periodof time and the amount of time spent by border enforcement on average provided by the Office of Immigration Statistics because it has few controls to measure for and can show an increase or decrease in the time spent on apprehending illegal immigrants(2006).The theory can be measured and analyzed.The unemployment rate in the United States is measurable, and the border apprehensions are a reliable and commonly used to see the level of border enforcement.I expect a short amount of lag time for the unemployment rates to effect the border enforcement statistically.The data can also be analyzed for a substantial amount of time for both variables.I am looking to find conclusive evidence through the data that shows a direct correlation between the unemployment rate and the border enforcement.

The border enforcement of the United States is largely driven by politics. The theories examined help to draw the conclusion of what variables influence border enforcement. The theory provided by Hanson and Spilimbergo examines the influence of sectoral shock to border enforcement. I will examine and modify the previous theory with the independent variable of unemployment. I conclude that unemployment will effect positively border enforcement of our nation's territory, thus allowing us conclusive evidence to how our nation's border enforcement is influenced.