Immigration Reform

Americans opposed to the Immigration Reform Bill have two major qualms: (a) legalization of illegals and (b) stemming the flow of illegals across the southern border. There are other issues, but these are the fundamentals. Some want to deport them, and many will complain that anything short of that constitutes amnesty.

Complicit America

Amnesty is basically a pardon for offenses committed against the government. On a large scale, the fear is that this would encourage others to break the same laws. Accomplices to criminals include any and all who have abetted in the enterprise. The porous border with Mexico is an old problem, which was discussed at length as late as 1986. Nothing was done about it (America turned a blind eye) because they represented labor that under American standards, worked for penurious compensation (cheap labor).

American businesses meretriciously waved a per-hour rate 10 times what general labor could get in Mexico with a currency 10 times the value of the Peso. Some companies actually complained to their senators and congressmen when the INS/ICE came to enforce the existing laws.

Complicit Mexico

The median age in Mexico is about 10 years younger than Americans, yet Mexico doesn't appreciate it's own source of wealth - it's people. It (Mexico) expects that all who will leave and work in America will send in large amounts of money to their families back home. Out of the billions of dollars sent by wire, this is true only up to and until the Immigration Reform bill is passed. The Republic of Mexico could never expect to collect the amount of money sent to the homeland if those same people stayed and paid income tax at home. The Mexican government's complicity is purely because of the bottom line.

The Border

Stemming the flow is truly the first part, since no other action can contain the situation at hand. The Immigration Reform Bill (Border Security And Immigration Reform Agreement) includes as a preliminary element, constructing 370 miles of fencing and 200 miles of vehicle barriers at the border and finishing doubling the size of the Border Patrol since President Bush took office.

Many will argue that a wall can be defeated with tunnels as has been done before (San Diego, CA). But the electronics components of the wall can also "hear" underground activity and can probably stop the construction of any tunnel long before it can become useful, the closer it (tunnel) gets to the wall.

Deportation

Evicting 12-20 million illegal immigrants might be possible, but I doubt seriously for how long Americans could take witnessing massive deportations on FOX News or CNN, with gripping tales of families being uprooted and shipped like cattle back to Mexico.

Deportation would constitute the displacement of 4%-6.6% of the population of the United States. Roughly 2-4 million families all across America would have to be rounded up, processed, placed on trains, buses and airplanes for multi-legged connections. To accomplish this in an expedient fashion, let's say within one year, 33,000-55,000 would have to be deported each day (average). It's hardly conceivable that 5,000 could be rounded and deported in one day (1,825,000/year), which would take 6.5-11 years.

If this Immigration Reform Bill does not become law, and deportation were to start, the consequences would be worse, because approximately 500,000 illegal immigrants will continue to enter the US each year. Deporting at 5,000/day would drop to 1,325,000/year, and would theoretically bring an end to the problem in well over 12 years. In reality, it could take several decades.

Americans hardly have the stomach to witness the necessary work at guaranteeing their survival through the war on terror. And those who are concerned about what the "world" would think certainly would be in for fresh and unflattering accusations.

Comprehensive Complex

Assume for a minute that the fence is built, and all electronic gadgets are in place, what other means of entry will coyotes provide their customers? If they can smuggle them in 18-wheeler trailers, they can surely bring them in by less-than-seaworthy boats, and by cargo ship. Very low percentiles of big ships with international cargo are searched. They will surely try, no less than desperate Cubans seeking liberty in the land of milk and honey.

The worst part of all these presentations (attacks and defenses) about this Immigration Bill is the falsehoods and completely wrong assumptions they bring.

For example, do we really know how many illegals really want to become Americans in the traditional sense, not to exploit and abandon it sometime later?

Another falsehood, which rightly angers many Americans, is that the illegals perform jobs Americans don't want to do. That is a ridiculous assumption. If Americans didn't have the stomach for dirty jobs they would have outsourced the war against terrorism, for one.

The real reason why illegals aim for those jobs is because (a) there is little exposure to the public (language barrier), (b) low skills requirements for those jobs (easier to qualify), and (c) employers complicity is more obscure.

A comprehensive bill is required since we know they will continue to come up with new ways to enter illegally. Other aspects must be dealt with as integral parts of the bill.

Economy and Fertility

So here they are, working hard, and importantly, keeping the US fertility rate higher than any other Western nation. Hispanics as a group are the most fertile in America, in any income bracket (except for the $75,000/year where they drop to second place)(source: The Direction of Fertility in the United States - http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/fertil.pdf). All other Western nations including Canada, France, Germany and Italy will lose their true descendant's nationality within 50 years. The low fertility rate means that they are not having enough children to replace their numbers. The immigrants who multiply faster will replace them.

The US economy is growing rapidly, and the housing market is also moving up at a fast paste. To boot, most new homes are being built bigger (average 4 bedrooms/home) than ever before. Yet the fertility rates of whites and blacks hardly supply industry with needed arms and legs. Meanwhile, many in America complain about corporations outsourcing to other countries that have no shortage of workers.

There are 6.8 million Americans (4.5% unemployment rate) looking for work (source: US Department of Labor-Employment Situation Summary). About 33% of the 4.5% (a third/1.5%) were otherwise laid-off (companies closing or moving out of US).

To compare to other economic giants in the world, in 2006 Canada's unemployment rate was 5.6%, France's 9.2%, Germany's 10.1%, Italy's 6.9% and the United Kingdom's 5.6% to America's at 4.7% during same period. Statistically, America's work force is employed at practically 98.5%!

Mexico's Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate in Mexico is 3.2% (Source Mexico:INEGI 04-2000). However, Mexico states that 25% of the work force is underemployed (part-time and otherwise underutilized).

That's because, according to the criterion used by the government's statistics-gathering agency, INEGI, any person who has worked at least one hour for monetary compensation during the previous one-week period is employed. By that standard, the man peddling pirated CDs on Acapulco's Costera beaches is also employed, as is the woman selling chicolets on the sidewalk or the 14 year-old scrubbing car windshields at stoplights for pesitos inMexico City.

These numbers are important because while some say that the 25-30% underemployed in Mexico represents some 11 million people, many believe this to be more like 50-60 million. This is the potential size, or quantity with a strong motive to head for the border.

With no social safety nets when temporarily unemployed, Mexicans must find immediate replacement work to survive the next day or the next week. The reason why the numbers are in question is exactly because there are no temporary financial assistance programs for them to apply for and thus be counted.

The Needs of the Many

In America, of new manufacturing facilities and other business sprouting up, the proximity of the unemployed will always play a key role in jobs getting filled. Moving to another state is often out of the question, but for every American noncommittal about relocating, a Mexican worker fills the gap. To the illegal, New Jersey is no different than New Mexico. Call them a mobile work force.

If the illegals did not serve a need, they could not exist in America. If America had no need for them, it would not have turned a blind eye and then willfully given them jobs.

The law was broken, true. The Immigration Reform Bill imposes fines as a penalty for those who wish to stay. In exchange for its complicit collaboration, America provides a means to remove the illegal nature, after the border is dealt with.

Will the law be enforced? If America can't trust it's government to enforce the laws it passes, then America should offer them a paid vacation until the next election.

Which illegal will come forward and follow the process laid out in this bill? That's the real question. Where are the polls on that? Even Reagan's easy Amnesty of some 3 million illegals back in 1986 failed to attract them all. They feared it was a trick to get them to come out of the shadows and get deported.

Cautious Acceptance

Some of the risks of the legislation are that there is no guaranteed quantifiable number that will come forth. I predict most will wait to see how the new Employment Eligibility Verification System (EEVS) impacts their ability to remain employed or get work.

After paying fines, returning to Mexico, and going through this new process, there is a good chance that some families will be split, leaving the working guest in America, while his family remains Mexico where the cost of living is considerably lower.

Risks and Benefits

The risks of doing nothing will only exacerbate matters exponentially. More of the truly undesirables will enter mixed in with those seeking good jobs, further straining the justice systems. More of those with infectious diseases (tuberculosis, HIV/Aids, etc) will continue to enter, further burdening health-care costs. Not to mention terrorists who may attempt to capitalize on this huge problem.

There are potentially some 50-60 million more waiting their chances.

Some of the benefits of this new bill are; provides a legal way for guest workers to come and go across the border; choice to be a guest worker or become a citizen; both the undocumented workers and their employers will sleep better at night with fewer INS/ICE nightmares; income taxes will be a known quantity vis-à-vis the milk-train costs (unlawful use of American safety nets); identity fraud should abet. It will likely put many coyotes out of business and help to prevent abuse by questionable employers who take advantage of their illegal status.

When to Accept Responsibility

The lesson here is that if you pass laws to protect the value of American citizenship, you had better enforce them, starting at the border. If America pretermitted its responsibilities towards the border and naturalization that allowed the situation to get where it is, then America must lie on the bed it made for itself.

Passing this bill is likely the best way America can accept it's responsibility, humanely. The driver of a getaway vehicle from a bank robbery didn't rob the bank, but he's still going to jail. It's time to come to grips.