Impact of the 2008 Democratic Primary

As the Democratic primary continues it slow march to conclusion, in which we think Senator Obama will emerge as the nominee, there are several ramifications from Senator's Clinton's prolonged stay in the race.

Proportional Voting - Certainly the merits of the proportional voting system, where candidates split the number of delegates received from a primary as opposed to a "winner-take-all" scenario will need to be debated. Would the results have been different had the Democrats operated under a winner-take-all strategy? As of May 13^th, using CNN's Election Center count to change split delegates to all-or-nothing victories for the leading candidate, Clinton would lead the delegate count while Senator Obama would have won more states. Thus, a unified system of all the delegates counting may not have yet provided a nominee. The advantages of the proportional system is it reflects the values of the electorate. A candidate that does well in a large state deserves to be recognized with the proportional number of delegates even if they do not win the state. It is a fair system. The current primary exemplifies the downside to the proportional system in that you could have a race where no candidate obtains the required number of delegates and that drags on the spring months.

Play By The Rules - Michigan and Florida. Why would you want those votes to count? Two of the 8 states with over 10 million people according to the 2007 census will not have their votes incorporated into the final tally. (Yes, I am assuming that despite Senator Clinton's desire, these two states will remain silent.) Regardless of how this scenario came about, it is imperative that the Democratic Party leadership ensure it never happens again. Whatever needs to be done to adjust the rules and/or create scenario plans, it is a travesty that such a close election will be decided without these two huge states that, with proper campaigning, could have swung the nomination in favor of either candidate.

The Comeback Kid - Candidates might not be as quick to drop out of future primary contests. If Clinton had been able to turn just two or three more states her way in the last couple of weeks, she might have won the nomination outright. Candidates often ride a Super Tuesday victory to the party's ticket, but if nothing else, Senator Clinton has shown that a viable candidate can make headway if they are financially able to compete. The votes in May count just the same as the ones from Super Tuesday. The longer a race goes, the higher the chance a candidate makes an error that could lose the nomination. Candidates will have to more seriously weight opportunities in future states when making the stay or go decision.

Bush's 2000 Victory Not So Bad? - Yet to happen, what could be most damaging to the Democratic Party is the idea that Senator Clinton could win the nomination despite the election results that have not gone her way. Ignore the results. The argument that Senator Clinton should be the nominee because she has a better chance of winning in the fall is frightening for the party. Even if she is right, which is impossible to prove, a back room victory would shatter the Democrats for years. What is the point of having primaries is the party leadership can supersede the popular & delegate vote counts? The idea that the primary result don't matter could lead to disengagement and/or independents favoring Republicans.

2008 has been an exciting run for the nomination giving us high drama between two qualified candidates. In the long-run, Senator Clinton's extended stay in the race may change Democratic primary practices.