Impact of Bhutto Assassination to Be Long-Lasting

The assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, leader of the opposition Pakistan People's Party, on December 27 in Rawalpindi will have serious long-term consequences, expert analysts say. Bhutto, who recently returned to Pakistan from self-imposed exile, survived an October assassination attempt after vowing to return democracy to Pakistan by challenging the rule of President Pervez Musharraf.

Bhutto enjoyed widespread support throughout Pakistan's provinces, and was widely favored to emerge victorious from elections scheduled for January of next year. She was long considered a target for Islamic extremists hoping to seize control of the Pakistani government and opposed to women's participation in governmental processes. Her assassination is a serious setback for democracy in Pakistan, a victory for Islamic extremists claiming responsibility for the attack on her, and an opportunity for President Musharraf to consolidate his hold on power by imposing martial law and postponing elections.

Gareth Evans, President and CEO of the International Crisis Group, an independent, nonprofit, nongovernmental organization that works to resolve and prevent violent conflict around the world, said in a statement, "Our condolences go to her family and to the people of Pakistan. Since the 1980s, she had been a vital and often under-estimated political force. Prospects for democracy and stability in Pakistan are much dimmer without her." The Crisis Group has called on the United Nations Security Council to establish an international commission of inquiry to investigate Bhutto's assassination.

The killing of Bhutto is a setback for the United States, which supported her return to Pakistan as part of a strategy designed to further democracy and secure Pakistan's role as an ally in the global war on terror. Now there is widespread speculation that Pakistan could fall apart politically, with no one from Bhutto's party ready to step up to take her place and with the next largest opposition group, the Pakistan Muslim League led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, undecided about its participation in January's scheduled elections.

If violent protests in the wake of Bhutto's death get out of control, and President Musharraf fails to get a handle on the ensuing chaos, the Pakistani government could fall apart. And while the attack on Bhutto was probably the work of Islamic extremists linked to either Taliban or Al-Qaeda elements within Pakistan, suspicions about the role of the Musharraf government in the killing could help completely unravel the situation. Anthony Cordesman, who holds the Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, an independent think tank, wrote December 27 that Bhutto's assassination could push Pakistan toward civil war if Musharraf or his government were suspected or implicated.

It is likely that the United States will be watching the situation in Pakistan very closely to ensure that the country's nuclear weapons are safeguarded and to maintain what is seen as a critical asset in the U.S. war against Islamic extremism. In the near-term, violence is likely to continue, and more deaths will follow. Even if the protests are brought under control, though, the future of democracy and the war on Islamic extremism in Pakistan have suffered a serious blow that will have repercussions for a long time to come.

Sources: International Crisis Group web site, Center for Strategic and International Studies web site