Impact of Government AIG Bailout on Investors

In September 2008, the American International Group, AIG, the largest insurance company in the United States, collapsed under the weight of bad debts incurred from insuring mortgage-backed securities. Although the corporation made significant progress in addressing liquidity issues related to its financial products and its securities-lending activities, in the middle of continued financial market turmoil, it failed to preserve and maximize the value of its business practices for the benefit of its stakeholders. As a result, AIG reported the largest quarterly losses in U.S corporate history, $61.7 billion in Q4.

The Federal Reserve bailed out AIG with an $85 billion loan in exchange for a 79.9% equity stake. Three weeks later, AIG was granted $37.8 billion loan as liquidity for its securities-lending business. Even after these initial infusions, losses continued to mount and in November, the Treasury provided another $20.9 billion under a new program, summing up the total bailout package to $144 billion under three different credit line programs. In March 2009, the Federal government agreed on providing AIG another $30 billion with a fourth program raising the bailout bill to $174 billion. By July 2009, the bailout package had reached $182 billion.

At the same time, AIG became the target of extensive outrage as a result of the $165 million paid in bonuses to AIG senior management and traders that actually caused the collapse. Investors, taxpayers and the public in general were disgusted at the idea of the people who caused AIG's collapse and financial distress to be rewarded as heroes.

The first immediate impact of AIG bailout is evident on investor confidence. In spite of the increased consumer spending and household income in the beginning of 2009, the AIG scandal overshadowed the markets. Considering that more than the US population owns stocks and other securities and with global capital markets reacting aggressively to AIG press releases and government bailout packages, the US economy and, consequently, the global economy, are affected by the governmental actions to help a corporate monster recover.

Besides, since October 2007 when the Dow was around 14,100 until today that is at 9,750, investors have lost 31 percent of their value. Even worse, in fourteen trading sessions, the Dow has toppled from 8,000 to below 7,000. At the same time, unemployment is at an all time high having affected nearly five million Americans, while productions levels continue to shrink and layoffs surpass any growth.

Technically what AIG was provided is a loan, but, in effect, it is a bailout because without that amount of money the company could have gone bankrupt. Now, AIG not only has to pay back the money, but taxpayers are also hooked with the company since they own, along with the U.S. government, 79.9% of it. The question about investors is how AIG can sell off its assets at a high price when capital markets are still in turmoil and there is not much liquidity in the markets? Wall Street is out of cash and investors are out of faith. So, in a way, AIG paying back its debt is a hope given that the company has a lot of debt in its liabilities. If the market explodes, taxpayers and the government are going to be on the hook for AIG.

Another thing that seems to be slightly misunderstood is the fact that AIG failure is not terrible only because the company was so big, but mostly because with AIG getting out of the picture for having backed mortgage-backed securities, the possibility of a domino effect is evident. Any business or individual that has been involved and has done business with AIG faces the reality of seeing own assets going under. And is such an unstable and weak financial environment this would a nightmare scenario.

The government AIG bailout shows the levels of corruption in corporate America. Before AIG, the common measurement of bonuses was a company's profitability. If the business was profitable, management was compensated with a bonus. If the business was losing money, there was no bonus involved. After AIG, things got reversed.

On the other hand, there are people who think that government bailout to AIG helped US economy to overcome the depression. However, the experience of previous recessions has shown that the end comes only when inflated prices shrink to a level that allows the majority of people to enjoy fundamental goods of life such as housing, clothing and nourishment.

The U.S. government is on the hook for succeeding in saving AIG for the moment. But, those who will make sure this bailout works are the U.S. taxpayers. The systemic risk that AIG posed in the first place and continues to pose combined with the volatility of capital markets, the cost to the US economy and the governmental inaction does little to re-inspire investor confidence. Even worse, government AIG bailout is a straight attack on the common sense of people. Unfortunately, this will take a long time until it can be forgotten and translated into rising capital markets and attractive stock performances around the globe.

http://www.onlineforextrading.com/blog/aig-bailout-again/