In Battleground Ohio Polls, Is Obama Gaining Momentum?

New Albany, Ohio -- Throughout this election season, it seems as if neither John McCain or Barack Obama could get a firm handle on the state of Ohio. Each time, if one took a solid lead in the state, the other came back and grabbed the lead. The state has clearly been divided on whom to choose.

Recent polling suggests Obama could be starting to get the all-important momentum. Three of the last five surveys from Ohio show Obama leading McCain by 9 points or more. On Thursday, Quinnipiac released a poll showing Obama leading McCain by a stunning margin of 52-38 percent margin.

A look at the internals of the Quinnipiac poll makes me very skeptical about this result because of its regional breakdowns. For example, it shows Obama leading by 19 points in southeastern Ohio, an area where McCain is widely expected to carry the vote and where Obama received little support in the Democratic primary. Despite that this poll appears to be an outlier, the trend still seems to be toward Obama. One poll can be an outlier, but when we start seeing multiple polls with Obama leads, it certainly makes one wonder if there isn't some momentum building.

I have the privilege of talking to several people every week about their ideas on the presidential race. One thing is clear: People are absolutely furious at the way things are going right now. Citizens believe that Wall Street, as well as Washington, have let them down and they are looking for someone who will change that. The mood about the economy is growing more dreary every week, as more companies lay off thousands of workers and many others see their hours cut back.

Ohio has been crushed by a surge in unemployment due to manufacturing job losses in the past few years, even before the current recession began. Now that the recession began, people all over the state are wondering just how bad it could get.

I have found many Ohioans are very enthusiastic about voting for their respective candidates this November. In fact, quite a few people I have talked to have already used early voting to make their voice heard. I decided to vote by absentee ballot for the first time this year, and have already sent mine in. I figure, as many others do in the state, that with voters so passionate about the issues, lines could be very long on election day.

So is Barack Obama really gaining momentum here in Ohio or is it statistical noise? I think it's debatable whether Obama is gaining momentum or if the citizens of the state are simply getting angrier about the current policies and defaulting to Obama because they believe he will bring about more change than McCain.

At this point, it seems Obama has been more effective in addressing people's concerns about the economy. Around Ohio that is a huge deal. In the end, I think there is no doubt Ohio will be a close state. But the scales may be tilting slightly in Obama's favor right now.