In Ohio, Challenges Ahead for John McCain, Barack Obama

New Albany, Ohio -- Living in a suburb of Columbus, Ohio, I see and hear a whole lot of different viewpoints on politics. The area I live in probably slightly leans more to the Republican side, but closer to downtown and where I commute on a daily basis, it's certainly a major base of Democratic support. It is quite amazing to see the McCain/Palin signs close to my place turn to a slew of Obama/Biden signs the closer I get to the inner city. There is a very clear divide in this state, and this election is causing quite a stir everywhere you go.

Simply by turning on the television every evening, it is absolutely clear both campaigns understand the importance of Ohio. Here we are, still three weeks away from election day, and almost every advertisement on the local stations is by the McCain or Obama campaign -- or a 527 group supporting one of the two candidates. The single thing I have heard most people agree on is that they are really looking forward to November 5th so they can be done with all the negative political ads and the constant barrage of hard hitting attacks.

I think the first thing everyone on the outside should realize is that both McCain and Obama face some pretty significant challenges in Ohio.

Let's take a look at the specific hurdles each will face heading into election day.

First, John McCain is certainly fighting against a very unpopular Republican Party. The Republican Party is not popular a the state level in Ohio because the previous governor, Bob Taft, was one of the most unpopular ever. He is largely held responsible for the tanking economy in many parts of the state. McCain is already swimming upstream on a national level because of the disapproval of President Bush and his policies. Support on the state and local level for Democratic candidates in Ohio has to be very concerning for John McCain.

Also of concern for John McCain is the movement in Franklin County the last few election cycles. The county, which is home to Columbus, used to be a Republican stronghold, but has quickly turned into an area of real strength for the Democrats. That African-Americans and young voters are both very energized, and largely for Barack Obama, means McCain could be facing a major deficit in the Columbus area.

What about Barack Obama? Obama has some things to worry about himself in Ohio. Recent polling shows there is a real feeling of unease toward Obama among quite a few voters in Ohio. There seem to be a lot of voters who don't want to support John McCain but are unsure if Obama is a good alternative.

The most recent Rasmussen Reports poll shows Obama leading McCain by 2 points in Ohio, but it also shows his favorability rating lower than McCain's and his unfavorables higher than McCain's. Obama must close the deal with those voters in Ohio who are clearly upset with the status quo, but don't know if he's right for the job.

Secondly, Obama has to be concerned about winning over the Hillary Clinton supporters. In the primary in March, Obama lost Ohio by about 8.5 percent to Clinton. Data from US Election Atlas and its primary database shows us that Obama won only 5 of the 88 counties in the state. If you look closely at this county by county map, you can also see that Obama had real problems in southeastern Ohio, where he was unable to break 20 percent in several of the counties. Barack Obama must close the gap in rural Ohio and win over the support of Hillary Clinton Democrats.

Both John McCain and Barack Obama face some difficult challenges in the Buckeye state. You can be sure that this is one state that will be contested up until election day because both campaigns know it is very tight and they have a whole lot on the line here.

Sources: Rasmussen Reports: Election 2008 Battleground Polls: Ohio; US Election Atlas: 2008 Democratic Primary Election Results: Ohio