In South Carolina, Barack Obama Should Come Out on Top

The gloves are off and the candidates have gone and publicly embarrassed themselves on national television during the last debate. The last stop before Super Tuesday is the South Carolina Democratic Primary, and the race is tight between Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. The base in South Carolina is the African-American vote and each candidate has been hoping that this crucial segment votes for them. Besides the African-American vote, each candidate is also looking out for those independent voters who stayed home during the Republican Primary.

Whoever wins in South Carolina can use their victory in three ways besides showing that all their hard work has paid off. First, it creates momentum for Super Tuesday and it creates an aura of electability, which is an important factor for many voters. Secondly, it helps when it comes to raising money because running for president is not cheap and the candidates are going to need to keep raising bundles of cash to stay competitive. Finally, it provides a boost to their supporters and gets their base energized for the next election.

The American Research Group's latest poll has Barack Obama is leading with 39% followed by Hillary Clinton with 36%, and John Edwards with 22% in South Carolina. While John Edwards will not win the nomination, his candidacy will pick up some delegates in the primary. This poll shows that Sens. Obama and Clinton need to stop fighting with each other because each has lost support in the last few days.

The newest MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll shows Barack Obama in the lead with 38%, Hillary Clinton with 30%, and John Edwards has 19% in South Carolina. Barack Obama has a strong support among voters younger than 50 years old, African-American men and African-American women. Hillary Clinton has her strongest support with voters over 50 years old, and White women. White men are the strong suit of John Edwards. Barack Obama also has the highest percentage of committed voters of the three, which helps in such a tight race.

I predict that Senator Barack Obama will win the South Carolina Democratic primary because his strongest support is found in this state's base and among independent voters.