In VP Debate, is it Oblivious Palin vs. Snooty Biden?

While Gov. Palin was the energetic choice as the GOP nominee, she has since drawn major criticism for her lack of knowledge and experience. Sen. Biden, on the other hand, has suffered from little more than a series of minor confusions.[1] This casts attention on Palin in the upcoming debate with expectations for her performance quite low. Though she could potentially surprise with a strong performance (e.g. '06 gubernatorial debate), she will have to stand up to Biden on three key issues: foreign policy, taxes and the financial crisis.[2]

In foreign policy, Gov. Palin is at a remarkable disadvantage. Having made fairly absurd connections to her foreign policy expertise relating to Alaska's proximity to Russia, she needs to stay honest. Americans will see any attempts otherwise as transparent. Her best chance on this issue could be Sen. Biden's attitude; as head of the Foreign Relations Committee, being too assertive may hurt him. Debate coach David Steinberg posits that Democrats fear, according to Reuters, that "Joe Biden will slip up and...patronize her."[3] This could ostracize sectors of the electorate likewise unfamiliar with these topics.

McCain favors extending the Bush plan and corporate tax cuts. After the financial crisis, Americans are more apt than ever to view such measures as elite favoritism. Instead, Palin may be able to elaborate upon McCain's proposal to cut summer gas tax. Any statement that Biden supports raising taxes will be met with a sound rebuttal. Obama desires to raise taxes only on incomes over $250,000, leaving their tax rate at '90s levels. Obama's is a net cut in government tax revenues to Reagan-era percentages and far less than historic percents.[4] But the treasury is in record debt, undecided voters may respond to whoever can exactly articulate from where the funding is going to come.

The failure to pass a bailout plan for the financial crisis has hurt McCain. He fought to convince House Republicans on the bailout while the Democrats delivered their votes.[5] Palin will be on the defense; she may be able to capitalize on strong conservative opposition to the bailout.[6] The Cato Institute suggests she should..."Tell the Wall Street bankers that when a small business makes bad decisions in Wasilla, it goes out of business," and the same should apply to New York.[7] This is advice for success with average Americans. But it would essentially contradict and abandon McCain again-recall her off-message support for attacking Pakistan. Palin should also exploit the lack of popularity amongst progressives who view it as traditional corporate welfare. Economist Dean Baker stated that..."there is little by way of hard commitments on the key points," or accountability for how the bailout money is spent.[8] Biden needs to explain why so many Democrats voted for a bill that essentially redistributes wealth upwards.

The Bush foreign policy legacy is currently in flux, McCain's skewed tax cuts favor the rich and conservative Americans are especially angry over the proposed bailout. Gov. Palin has more than just her lack of knowledge to deal with. Absent significant self-inflicted damage, Sen. Biden will soundly win this coming debate.

[1] UPI (30 Sept 2008). Biden Supporters say Let Joe be Joe. United Press International, Inc.

[2] Eilperin, J. (30 Sept 2008). Palin Gets Ready for Eagerly Awaited Debate With Biden. The Washington Post. Washington D.C. Whitesides, J. (30 Sept 2008). An Unusual VP Debate--it Actually Matters. Reuters., UPI (30 Sept 2008). Palin prepping for debate in seclusion. United Press International, Inc.

[3] Whitesides, J. (30 Sept 2008). An Unusual VP Debate--it Actually Matters. Reuters. Nate. (28 Sept 2008). "Pressure Builds on Palin and Biden Prior to VP Debate." You Decide 2008, from http://www.youdecide2008.com/2008/09/28/pressure-builds-on-palin-biden-prior-to-vp-debate/.

[4] (2008). "US Federal Individual Income Tax Rates History, 1913-2008." Tax Data, from http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/151.html. Reuters (4 Jun 2008). FACTBOX: Obama, McCain's Budget and Tax Proposals. Reuters., Furman, J. and A. Goolsbee (14 Aug 2008). The Obama Tax Plan. The Wall Street Journal. New York.

[5] Kurtz, H. (30 Sept 2008). Bailout Bombs. The Washington Post. Washington D.C.

[6] Bigg, M. (30 Sept 2008). Conservatives Stand Firm on Opposition to Bailout. Reuters. Atlanta.

[7] Cato-at-Liberty. (29 Sept 2008). "Let Palin Be Palin."

[8] Baker, D. (29 Sept 2008). Wall St held a gun to our heads. The Guardian Unlimited.