Indiana for Obama?

Indiana for Obama. The phrase rolls well off the tongue, but will Hoosier voters deliver Indiana for Obama? For the first time in decades, the Indiana primary will play a resounding role in the Democratic nomination, and as one of the last-voting states, Indiana's word will be one of the last in the contest. Can Obama deliver Indiana, as some signs indicate, or will Clinton pick up delegates towards her increasingly unlikely win?

First, a little analysis of the background would be appropriate. Indiana is overwhelmingly white, a center of higher education, possesses an economy of manufacturing and industry, and has the reputation of being staunchly Republican. These facets, along with several others more pertinent to the minutiae of the two candidates, may not at first glance indicate what they seem.

Clinton's advantages do exist in the Hoosier State. As a heavily industry-oriented state, there are many Indiana voters who fear economic downturn, overseas competition, and all of the resulting issues (such as lost health care) that go hand in hand with loss of manufacturing jobs. As Clinton demonstrated in the Ohio primary, she can translate this into support. However, recent revelations of her quiet, continued support for NAFTA may translate into less support than she received in Ohio.

Clinton may also have the advantage in Indiana's racial makeup. Overwhelmingly white, at first glance Indiana would seem to have a better chance of backing Clinton over Obama. No one likes to say it, but racial prejudice plays a factor in any election whose candidates are of different race. However, this primary season has bucked that concept in some respects (more on this later.) In addition, some Indiana voters are still upset over the angry, America-critical sermons of Obama's former church pastor (who is also black) and may choose not to support Obama based on the views of his former pastor, which is a fair, but shortsighted, view.

Indiana's neighbor to the east, Ohio, may have some ability to foretell Indiana primary support, with similar situations concerning jobs, economic strength, and voter beliefs and makeup. This may be a strength for Clinton, but only if Indiana voters have the same recalcitrance as was shown in Ohio.

Turning to Obama, we find reasons to place Indiana for Obama, but he also faces challenges. Obama's message of hope and change has captured him the lion's share of the youth vote, as well as the vote of Democrats with higher levels of education. Both of these groups have a strong presence in Indiana, centered on Indiana's widespread institutes of higher education, such as Indiana University, Purdue University, Ball State, and more. Obama can expect to receive support from these groups; the youth vote in particular has become a titanic force in his grass-roots, get out the vote approach.

In consideration of race, as mentioned earlier, Indiana is overwhelmingly white. At first glance, one could assume this is a negative for Obama. However, Obama has an interesting pattern of primary wins. He does best in states that have either a very large black population or states that have a very small population of blacks (or any minority group.) For example, Obama handily won states like Georgia and South Carolina, with large black populations, but he also handily won states like Iowa and Vermont, which have low populations of any minority. His results are much weaker in states with a large, diverse mix of ethnicities, such as California and Ohio. Obama's Indiana results will be an interesting indication of whether or not this pattern holds up.

Indiana's proximity to Illinois may assist Obama, especially in northern and northwest Indiana. This area has strong political, social, and economic ties to Chicago, which may translate into strong support for Obama. Some Midwestern home-state pride from Illinois may bleed over into western Indiana, as well.

Finally, a different factor that may deliver Indiana for Obama is Hillary Clinton herself. There exist, in Indiana and elsewhere, many voters who harbor an intense dislike for the Clintons. Their reasons are wide and varied; obviously some are Republicans, while others blame the Clintons (rightly) for the existence of NAFTA, and still others feel that the Clintons shamed the Presidency with Bill's scandals, or that Hillary seems dishonest and zealously ambitious, and will simply do whatever is necessary to secure political power. These viewpoints may not score support for Obama in Indiana, but they very well may work against Hillary.

In summary, Indiana's primary vote will be of powerful import. Whether or not Indiana will join the Obama column is not yet clear, nor whether Indiana will break its string of backing Republicans in the general election. In support, however, and contrary to popular belief, there are many Democrats in the Hoosier state, myself included. They simply don't like to back weak candidates, and are practical voters. What this means for 2008, and the Indiana primary, is anyone's guess.