Indiana Poll Data Analysis

Indiana and North Carolina, the two largest remaining states in the Democratic Primary race, will make an influential decision in selecting the Democratic nominee when they vote on Tuesday, May 6. Indiana has 72 delegates that will be awarded on a proportional basis. It is an open primary where non-Democrats can also cast their ballots.

Clinton's thumping victory of 10 points over Obama in Pennsylvania has given her a much-needed momentum to stay alive in the race for the Democratic nomination. Her fund-raising drive is stronger and her campaign looks healthier now. Poll data for Indiana has shown a gradual drift in favor of Clinton since her win. Before the Pennsylvania Primary, Obama and Clinton appeared to be in a tie in Indiana. Polls indicated 5-8% of undecided voters with Obama slightly in the lead by 2-3% or the electorate almost evenly between the candidates.

But recent polls conducted within the last 4-5 days show Clinton in a statistically significant lead although the margin is small. Data from American Research Group shows Clinton ahead by 5% points. SurveyUSA is the only poll that has Clinton leading by 9% points. Only Research 2000 shows an even race between the candidates even in recent polls.

American research Group shows Obama leading Clinton by 7% points among men in Indiana. As in the past primaries, Clinton leads among women by about 16 points. Obama has a 6% lead amongst voters below 50 years of age. Older voters favor Clinton by a margin of 10%. 91% of Indiana's black voters back Obama. SurveyUSA polling data states Clinton is gaining among Independent voters.

Indiana has depended on manufacturing jobs traditionally; the state has suffered job losses and economic woes for many year now. SurveyUSA polls note that more people are increasingly worried about the economy - about 55% have indicated that economy is the biggest issue in the most recent poll. This is well over the 44% of voters who were concerned about it in a poll from March 2008.

Indiana is a red state. Since 1964, no Democratic President has won the state. Obama has enjoyed a winning streak in most red states. If the trend continues, it will be in his favor. Besides, in the adjoining states of Illinois and Wisconsin, Obama did very well. However, the large blue-collar population in the state make it better-suited for Clinton.

Indiana's voter registration numbers have increased by 150,000 according to The Christian Science Monitor this year. But in the last 40 years, there has never been such a hotly contested Democratic primary in the state. So voter turnout and consequently the election result is difficult to predict.

Also unlike Pennsylvania, it is an open Primary where non-Democrats can vote. Many polls have indicated that McCain has a better chance of defeating Clinton than defeating Obama in the Presidential race. So, in order to boost McCain's chances, Republicans may come out in big numbers to give Clinton a victory.

In any case, the race looks to be a close one. Unless the victory margin is large, neither candidate will gain a significant number of delegates from Indiana's Primary.