Indiana Polls: John McCain Fighting Off Barack Obama

LAFAYETTE, Ind. -- Looking at the latest presidential polls in Indiana, one thing is certain: John McCain, the presumptive Republican Party nominee is the favorite and is leading among prospective Hoosier voters.

But because this election season is different for a variety of reasons, McCain may not be able to take Indiana for granted as Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee, tries to put the state in play.

In February, Survey USA reported that Indiana voters favored McCain 50 percent to 40 percent. At the end of April, according to Research 2000, Obama cut that lead slightly, with McCain holding a 51-43 lead.

Those polls, though, were taken during the heated Democratic primary when Obama was squaring off against Hillary Rodham Clinton. RealClearPolitics.com stated after examining a combination of polls from the Downs Center, Research 2000, the Indianapolis Star/Selzer and Survey USA, that McCain's actual lead in Indiana is as small as 2 percent, 47.3 to 45.3.

A more recent June 1 poll, conducted by Indiana Legislative Insight and reported by Votemaster, shows McCain with a 47-39 lead over Obama.

Regardless of which figure an individual believes, the fact is that a Democrat has not won Indiana in a presidential election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. George W. Bush easily beat John Kerry 60-39 percent in the 2004 election four years ago.

But the Obama campaign feels confident enough about his chances that it is planning on opening up several field offices in the state. There are a few reasons for his optimism.

In May, Hillary Clinton won the state's Democratic primary 51 percent to 49 percent, but both candidates drew an impressive 1.27 million voters, just short of the 1.47 million George Bush won against John Kerry in the 2004 presidential general election.

Even the Cable News Network, while not calling Indiana a toss-up state, is putting the state in the weak GOP category, according to its online Electoral College map.

One wild card in the state could be the vice presidential selection, according to the Indianapolis Star. Conservative Democrat and Hillary Clinton supporter Evan Bayh remains on the list of Obama's vice presidential candidates. The selection of Bayh, a U.S. Senator in Indiana and a former governor, could be enough to swing the state, if the race is actually as close as some of the polls suggest, some political insiders suggest.

In the same 2004 election where Bush humbled Kerry, Bayh did even better, beating his Republican challenger Marvin Scott for his Senate re-election with 62 percent of the vote.

Making Indiana competitive is part of Obama's so-called 50-state strategy, according to USA Today, more of a move that would force McCain to campaign and spend money in states Republicans normally consider safe.