Indiana Presidential Polls Show Race is Narrowing

Indianpolis, Indiana -- As my husband drove on I-65 yesterday, he saw a motorcade in the opposite side of the interstate, one coming from the Indianapolis airport, possibly bringing Barack Obama to the American Legion Mall, where Obama was scheduled to speak yesterday. The turnout was amazing. As many as 35,000 people in Indianapolis showed up yesterday (info about the crowd's size comes from information here at IndyStar as well as other sites online).

It didn't take an official report to feel the effects of that crowd in the downtown area. My husband, required to be at work yesterday, worked his way through massive traffic jams. When we went out to dinner, people at nearby tables were talking about Obama's speech and there were people in the restaurant who had driven to Indianapolis just to see him.

Presidential Polls in Indiana: are they now tipped in Obama's favor?

When it comes to Indiana's presidential polls, things have taken quite a turn in the last week. To see exactly how much difference a week can make when it comes to public opinion, check the polls and figures as of October 16, compiled as part of an article I wrote here . At that point, the state was still considered a "toss-up" in the election, but McCain had an edge and Indiana was classified as "leaning" for McCain in the Real Clear Politics poll compilations. It was still a tight race...but it has now suddenly gotten much tighter! The buzz is in the air and people in Indiana are talking about this because it is a rarity in a traditionally Republican state.

As recently as October 21, Zogby Interactive showed that John McCain had the lead, 52.8 to Obama's 42.3 (4.9 percent of those polled were undecided). Even then, John Zogby noted that Obama had an advantage in the Electoral College and McCain would need to "impact all of the states he needs to overturn Obama".

Wall Street, the economy and Indiana Presidential Polls

Within a day of Obama's appearance in Indiana, Wall Street hit another huge bump, doing nothing to allay people's fears about the economy.

As it turns out - only a day after Obama's speech, the Dow fell sharply - over 300 points - as indicated in the NY Times article here . Bad news on Wall Street, however, may have strengthened Obama's position in Indiana, especially since he has repeatedly stressed the need for economic change. For an intriguing timeline of Indiana presidential polls, take a look at the latest information at Real Clear Politics here .

A week ago, McCain was edging out Obama for a slight lead in the Indiana polls. Today, the situation is reversed and Obama has that slight edge. See the lines on the polls where the percentages in favor of Obama converge with those in favor of McCain. For weeks now, the lines have been slightly apart. Now they are touching, further indicating that Indiana voters are still in the "toss up" category. The election results are simply situation too close to call. At this point, Obama has a .5 edge, 47.3 to McCain's 46.8. .

Indiana election polls and Indiana home sales and foreclosures

This morning, Hoosiers woke up to news about further turmoil on Wall Street. Home foreclosures continue to be high. Just the other day, I opened an email informing me that my home's value had dropped by $8,000, according to data compiled by Zillow - or a site similar to Zillow (I confess that I couldn't keep reading the gloomy information in that email).

It is bad enough when I drive down streets in solidly middle and upper class neighborhoods and see all those For Sale signs lined up on the lawns, often accompanied by updated price reductions. Many of those homes have sat there for months and I've dutifully plucked the comp sheets, the ones listing home prices, features, amenities and more.

Home prices have dropped significantly -and still, many of those homes sit, at remarkably low prices. A tight economy, repeated visits by Obama to Indiana and the turmoil on Wall Street may be helping to make the Indiana presidential polls tighter than ever. That - and the fact that John McCain hasn't appeared recently in Indiana. Meanwhile, Election Day is right around the corner.

Sources:

1, Personal experience, eyewitness account by husband

2. U.S. Stocks Slide After Rout Overseas: NY Times, Oct 24

3. Real Clear Politics poll - Indiana: McCain Vs. Obama: here

4. 35,000 Welcome Obama at Rally, Indy Star, Oct 24 here

5. Zogby Interactive Poll: McCain Regains Indiana:Obama Still Surpasses Electoral Threshold with 273, Oct 21 here

6. Indiana Battleground Report:Michelle Obama, Sarah Palin Speak in State, Oct. 16, here