Indonesia and the War on Terror

For centuries, the Middle East has been torn by bloody conflicts such as those between Shiites and Sunnis, Turks and Armenians, and Spaniards and the Moors. Recently, these regions have been unable to contain the hatred violence that has contaminated their history for centuries. The echoes of radical Islam's constant war against the unbelievers now resonate through the world. Yet in the islands of Indonesia, the worst may be yet to come.

The goal of radical Islam is not simply to gain control over the Middle East, to silence those who give offense to Islam, or even to destroy the United States, it is to lead a worldwide Jihad against all non-Muslims. Though it has yet to experience any major Islamic riots, Europe has dealt with protests and other activities that fall perfectly in line with the plans of radicals like Osama bin-Laden. It is possible that Europe will soon be joined by Indonesia.

Ever since it gained independence, Indonesia has been wrought with political instability. Corruption, separatism, and Communism have plagued it for half a century. On June 7, 1999, Indonesia experienced its election since 1955. Up until that day, political corruption and competition between different factions of the government had robbed the people of their rights. Now, it is possible that such turmoil is about to return.

With approximately 90% of its citizens claiming to be Muslims, Indonesia has the largest Islamic population in the world, making it a potential stronghold for radical Islam. The province of Aceh has already declared a form of Sharia as the provincial law. The fact that poverty runs rampant in Indonesia also makes it easier for the Al-Qaeda to recruit members; people with less to lose are more likely to join a cause.

If radical Islam were allowed to fester in Indonesia, it would become nearly impossible to amputate. If the Indonesian armed forces tried to deal with them, they would be demoralized as it became more and more necessary to fire on their own people. With a breakdown of the military, the result would inevitably lead to a head-to-head battle between the Indonesian government and an Islamic insurgency. In such a contest, the level independence that Indonesia gives its provinces would be a great disadvantage, if it did not strengthen the power of the federal government, insurgents could simply usurp province after province without directly challenging the federal government. If it did enforce the power of the federal government, there is a chance that the common people would begin to feel oppressed, creating a public relations victory for the insurgents.

Ultimately, the future of Indonesia depends on how many Indonesians sympathize with radical Islam and how many others are willing to tolerate it. If a large enough population supports the insurgents, then the struggle will continue to elevate and even if Indonesia does not fall completely, the free world will be faced with yet another shelter for terrorists. If, however, a very small population supports the insurgency, it will probably fail.

The most dangerous thing about terrorists is that they are completely willing to provoke the West into the persecution of Muslims. They want to alienate Islam from the rest of humanity. By making Muslims the victims, they gain more support in Muslim-populated areas.

The fact that Islamic terrorists have not carried out many major operations in Indonesia suggests that they will not attempt to take root in the islands of the Far East until it is well into this campaign of isolation. At the same time, the point at which Indonesia is ready for an Islamic insurgency does not seem to be too far off in the future. It has already suffered from bombings that are believed to have originated from militant Islam. The most infamous of these demonstrations was the bombing of a nightclub in Bali that killed over 200 people, mostly tourists. Ethnic violence is also present between certain groups.

If terrorists were to gain dominance over the archipelago of Indonesia, it will mean a great deal of trouble for the U.S. and other major powers. It is unlikely that the U.S. will tolerate an insurgency in Indonesia but a complete takeover is not necessary for them to be a viable threat. If the U.S. is forced to occupy Indonesia, its forces will be spread even thinner. With growing unpopularity due to its "oppression" of Indonesia and even more terrorists potentially boarding flights to America, the U.S. would be in a very difficult situation.