Iowa Ames Straw Poll: Romney Wins, Huckabee Makes Strong Showing

Iowa Ames Straw Poll; Romney Wins, Huckabee makes strong showing; Others Flounder

Touted as the most important straw poll preceding the important Iowa Caucuses, the results of the Ames straw poll are in.

Front Runners

It should come as a surprise to none that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney placed first with 31.5% of the vote.

Romney, like many other politicians, sees Iowa's 'first in the nation' status as the key to earning national media coverage to garner support in the later contests, which he may not have the time and money to campaign in. In short, winning in Iowa buys votes elsewhere.

Romney leads the GOP pack not only in fundraising, negotiating with party insiders, including his friend Jeb Bush, has secured, but also in personal wealth. So far, Romney may not need to dip far into his own finances.

At the event, Romney provided air conditioned tents, food and entertainment, like all other candidates who participated in the event. Though the poll is officially meaningless, it is an effective measure of where support lies among early voters.

Mike Huckabee, the former governor from Arkansas, was celebrating his second place finish with 18% of the vote.

Huckabee has been battling for the hearts and minds of the conservative element of his party, and it seems that he has now been able to secure a portion of them.

Huckabee received more votes than the number of tickets that his campaign purchased and distributed. Traditionally, the candidate pays for the $35 tickets and gives them to supporters. As a result, Huckabee received more support from people who spent their own money than anyone else.

"Obviously this was an incredible day and victory for us," Huckabee told reporters. "What happened for us today was stunning."

"We over-performed," he added. "The bigger story is we did it with not a dime of paid advertising," unlike first place winner Mitt Romney, who has spend a considerable amount of resources on air time.

Having the status as 'the biggest surprise' of the pseudo-contest, the Huckabee campaign continues to receive immense positive media coverage and requests from national outlets. This may be the tip of the iceberg to bring "Huckabee" to the headlines and then on to national awareness.

Modest Winners

Tom Tancredo, the Congressmen from Colorado with the last name that no one can pronounce, happily took in 14% of the vote, giving him the largest percentage of votes from the third tier candidates.

The leader of the Ron Paul revolution finished with just 9% of the vote, even after airing their first TV ad. Not all is lost, however, as this is the first time that Paul has finished in any place but last in a serious contest in this race so far.

"We are pleased and encouraged by the results (of the poll)," Paul's campaign said in an announcement on their website.

Outright Finished

There is likely to be one less Thompson in the race, though actor Fred Thompson has yet to officially declare his candidacy. Tommy Thompson, the former Wisconsin Governor and White House official.

Mustering 7% of the vote, only about 1,000 votes, Tommy Thompson will likely decide to withdraw from the race.

"Thompson will comment on the future of his campaign within the next 48 hours," said one staffer with close ties to the candidate, suggesting that there may indeed be no future for Thompson in this race.

"Clearly it'll be difficult for the campaign to continue," said, Steve Grubbs, Thompson's Iowa adviser.

It would not be a surprise to see Thompson, who has close ties to the unpopular administration, and who has failed to raise support with donors and voters alike, become the second Republican candidate to drop out of the race following former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore.

Update 8/12/2007 - Tommy Thompson's campaign released a statement detailing the former governor's withdraw from the race.

I have no regrets about running," he said in a statement released Sunday evening by his campaign. "I felt my record as Governor of Wisconsin and Secretary of Health and Human Services gave me the experience I needed to serve as president, but I respect the decision of the voters. I am leaving the campaign trail today, but I will not leave the challenges of improving health care and welfare in America."

Thompson was on the record stating that he needed to finish in the top two spots to stay in the race. The statement made no mention of an endorsement for another candidate.

Down, but not out...

Finally, Kansas senator Sam Brownback, a Catholic whose disbelief in science, such as evolution, made him a presence in the evangelical community, also had a miserable showing with 15% of the vote.

"We're still in this race, we're still going to move aggressively forward," Brownback told a crowd of 50 in his tent. "We've separated ourselves from the rest of the field."

Had more top-tier candidates participated, his performance would surely have been worse. Brownback will likely continue on in the race, but without a means of separating himself from the pack, he may not be in it for much longer.

His campaign announced that they will begin buying TV air time for advertisements, something that the campaign has yet to do.

Other Candidates

Top tier candidates such as Giuliani and McCain opted out of the recent straw poll, along with Duncan Hunter and yet-to-declare Fred Thompson, who all received 1% of the total votes.

There is still a long road to the Iowa caucuses next year, but the race is taking shape, and the established leaders at this moment are not likely to change.