Iowa Caucus Shows Presidential Race Wide Open

The results of the Iowa Presidential Caucus are in, and the results defied conventional wisdom about the candidates most likely to win their parties' nominations for President of the United States. Official results say that among Democratic candidates, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois won 37.58 percent of the vote, while the favorite, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, managed only to finish third with 29.47 percent, slightly behind former North Carolina Senator John Edwards' 29.75 percent. Senators Joe Biden and Christopher Dodd, who each gathered less than 1 percent of total votes cast, are dropping from the race.

For Republicans, the Des Moines Register reports that former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee won the Iowa Caucus with 34 percent of the vote, while former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney finished second with 25 percent. Fred Thompson and John McCain essentially tied for third, each with about 13 percent of Republican votes cast.

The surprise victories of Obama and Huckabee have thrown both the Democratic and Republican presidential contests into turmoil as the race for the White House moves to the New Hampshire primary, scheduled for Tuesday, January 8. Clinton, who still has a commanding lead in national polls, will need to finish strong in New Hampshire if she is to rebound from her surprising third place showing in Iowa. Clinton has largely based her campaign on the inevitability of her securing the nomination, a notion seriously damaged in Iowa. A poor showing in New Hampshire could completely derail the Clinton candidacy, despite her prospects for strong finishes in other, more significant states in late January and early February.

Republican candidate Mitt Romney far outspent other GOP candidates in Iowa, and still only managed a second place finish that was 9 percentage points behind Huckabee. Romney's candidacy is threatened by a poor follow-up showing in New Hampshire, where Arizona Senator John McCain is expected to perform well and possibly win.

There is a distinct possibility that electoral results from the New Hampshire primary could produce winners entirely different from those in Iowa, making the presidential contest more interesting, and more contentious. The latest poll numbers from RealClearPolitics.com show that Clinton has an average lead of more than 6 percent over Obama, while Republican candidate John McCain has an average lead of less than 2 percent over Romney. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who avoided serious campaigning in Iowa, has been in New Hampshire of late, but is focused on major primary states in late January and early February, much like Senator Clinton.

Obama, Edwards, and Huckabee cited the Iowa results as a sign of the nation's desire for change. A statement on the Edwards web site says, "By standing with John Edwards in his fight for the middle class, the people of Iowa delivered a powerful message tonight that the American people are sick of the status quo and ready for real change." CATO scholar Patrick Basham says, "On the Democratic side, John Edwards' organizational strength could surprise either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama." For Republicans, Basham says, "...it's a battle to take-on Rudy Giuliani on Super Tuesday. Separate winners in Iowa and New Hampshire may strongly reposition Giuliani, despite a dwindling national lead, to face-down his divided, socially conservative opposition."

Sources: Iowa Caucus Results web site; Des Moines Register web site; RealClearPolitics.com web site; CATO web site