IPCC Reports on Global Warming

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its fourth assessment report this morning. They had a web cast that I listened to and thoroughly enjoyed, other than the Q/A part where the microphones got whacked. I started to write an article about the report but AC is not really chart friendly so I blew that off.

There were a couple of interesting things in the report as compared to the 2001 Third Assessment Report (TAR). The scientists have a bunch of new models to predict climate change. That was cool. I compared the global temperature change predicted in this report to the TAR. Things are getting better!

The new models show an average 11% reduction in the predicted climate change between now and the year 2100. Also one of the worst-case scenarios A1FI (that's scenario A1 with fossil intensive use) wasn't plotted this time around. That knocks 2 degrees C off the year 1900 to 2100 plot of temperatures. That's 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit! That has to be good news. In comparing the two reports I noticed that the baseline for the global temperature rise was different. That made it a bit harder for me to compare the data for the two reports. I did it though.

Dr. Solomon mentioned that the ice caps are melting and used a term I found comforting, millennia. I like millennia, sounds like a long time. The polar ice caps are melting and at current warming trends they will be gone in millennia. She didn't say that exactly that way, I just liked the sound of it. The whole report is on the IPCC website at http://www.ipcc.ch, if you are smart you will read it yourself.

The panel agreed that the recent increase in number and intensity of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) is due to global warming. They said they didn't agree that sever weather like tornados and dust storms are related to GW. That seems to be more related to El Nino (the report didn't say that, that's what I felt was implied).

The table showing the rise in global ocean levels was omitted this year. That disappointed me. I live about 2.5 feet above sea level and that is a topic that really interests me. The Antarctic doesn't seem to be melting away but the artic is or at least some of it is. The panel wasn't really sure how all the icecap melt was working just yet.

The report mentioned that atmospheric HO2 levels have increased inline with the temperature increase. Warmer air holds more water. By the way, water vapor is a greenhouse gas. The report didn't mention that.

While I am writing this, the weather channel is running footage from ABC. The ABC reporter mentions the IPCC report and ended it with something like, "And global temperatures will continue to rise. There is nothing that will change that." I didn't see that in the report. I did see a little note that the models did not reflect the impact of the world's nations meeting Un and Kyoto protocol emission standards. I thought that meant that making some changes in our energy use and carbon sequestering might help. Guess I'm wrong; it was on the weather channel after all.

All in all I thought it was a good report and I am looking forward to the WG2 and WG3 reports due in the next few months. This explains everything in a little more detail and lists mitigation options. I hope they mention the North Atlantic Heat pipe in that report.