Iran Election Results - Ahmadinejad Wins

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the apparent landslide winner in the Iranian Presidential elections, according to the Iranian Interior Ministry. Ahmadinejad's main rival, Mir Hossein Mousavi, has dismissed the announced results, claiming voter fraud.

Mir Hossein Mousavi, a "reformist" candidate, has the support of Iran's large population of young people who have chaffed in recent years under the theocratic rule of the Islamic Republic. According to the Washington Post, Iranian government officials are already trying to tamp down the possibility of post election violence:

"However, officials delayed without explanation an expected announcement of the complete results, which news agencies said suggested intervention by Iran's Islamic authorities to tamp down a potentially volatile situation.

"Riot police cordoned off the Interior Ministry, which directed Friday's voting, and stood guard around key government buildings.

"Plainclothes officers fired tear gas to disperse a cheering crowd outside Mousavi's campaign headquarters after the pivotal presidential election ended in confusion, with both sides claiming victory."

The Iranian Interior Ministry is controlled by an Ahmadinejad loyalist, Sadegh Mahsouli. Furthermore, "Mousavi's supporters charged that officials were trying to steal the election and cut off alternative sources of information. For several hours during the balloting Friday, they said, international telephone lines to Tehran were down and text messaging -- which Mousavi's supporters had used to organize street rallies -- was blocked. Members of the baseej reportedly seized a building in North Tehran that housed several Web sites supporting Mousavi, which were shut down."

Whomever wins the Iranian Presidential election likely doesn't matter much. Mir Hossein Mousavi is a "reformer" only in the sense of the degree with which the theocratic rule in Iran is continued. Also, both Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Mir Hossein Mousavi are in favor of continuing Iran's nuclear bomb program, though Mir Hossein Mousavi seems to want a "less confrontational" policy toward the West.

In any case, real political power in Iran is vested in the Islamic Republic's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is unelected and is a hardliner on both domestic and foreign policy. Whomever is elected President of Iran likely cannot stray too far from the wishes of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

In a perverse way, the apparent reelection of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be the best outcome in the long run. The Obama administration, which seems to favor diplomacy even with obviously hostile regimes such as Iran's, will not be able to fool itself as easily than Iran can be reasoned with now that Ahmadinejad is apparently reelected than if the "reformer" Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Also, the suspicions of voter fraud having taken place will feed upon the resentments of Iran's young populace, most of whom have only lived under the rule of the Mullahs. The opportunities for regime change by other means, if the Obama administration is willing to go that route (doubtful at the moment) have increased significantly.

Source: Ahmadinejad Wins Election, Mousavi Protests Results, Thomas Erdbrink and William Branigin, Washington Post, June 13th, 2009