Iran: A Preemptive Strike on Israel?

The Israeli publication Haaretz reported October 22 that senior Iranian officials have recommended a preemptive strike against Israel before the Israelis could attack Iran's nuclear facilities.

Haaretz attributes its report to statements made in London two weeks ago by Dr. Seyed G. Safavi, who also is reported to have said that recently issued belligerent comments by Israel have shored up support for such a strike. Haaretz noted that Safavi also said that a preemptive move by Iran has not become official policy in Tehran, yet.

According to the report, Dr. Safavi is the head of the Research Institute of Strategic Studies in Tehran, and also serves in an advisory role to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Haaretz says Safavi's institute "...is directly affiliated with Khamenei's office and with the Revolutionary Guards, and advises both on foreign policy issues."

While I don't doubt that some hardliners in Iran are pushing for a preemptive strike against Israel, I do find it incredibly hard to believe that the Iranian leadership would decide on such a reckless policy. Attacking Israel could have disastrous consequences for Iran and could spark a wider regional war, especially if the United States participated in or cooperated with an Israeli retaliatory strike.

Haaretz quotes Safavi as saying, in reference to the group advocating a preemptive strike, "The recent Israeli declarations and harsh rhetoric on a strike against Iran put ammunition in these individuals' hands." Israel has repeatedly leaked comments from senior officials stating that if the international community would not stop Iran's nuclear program, Israel would be forced to act on its own. Additionally, earlier this year, Israel conducted a large-scale exercise that simulated the distances involved in a prospective strike on Iran.

Haaretz also cites Safavi as saying, "...Tehran recently drafted a new policy for responding to an Israeli or American attack on its nuclear facilities. While the previous policy called for attacks against Israel and American interests in the Middle East and beyond, the new policy is to target Israel alone."

The United Nations Security Council has passed three resolutions imposing weak economic sanctions against Iran. Recent talks among Security Council members about a fourth round of sanctions have not produced an agreement. Further sanctions are being blocked by Russia and China, two countries with extensive business interests in Iran.

One thing is certain, the next U.S. president will have to deal with Iran early in his term. It would be much easier to work toward a resolution of the nuclear issue if neither Israel nor Iran has launched a preemptive strike.