Iran Preparing for War?

A new article in the Middle East Times argues that recent Iranian actions could be a prelude to war in the region. In "Is Iran Readying for War," Claude Salhani writes that recent weapons tests, ballistic missile production, and changes to Iran's defense infrastructure could mean the Islamic Republic is readying itself for a near-term conflict.

According to a source quoted by the Times, Iran conducted a test fire of a missile called "Safir Omir" just over a month ago, using a cover story that said the test was of a communication satellite. The source told the Times, "It's a military operation, it's a military program, disguised as a civilian program." He went on to say that the test involved a "very concerted effort to hide the military nature of the launch." The source was identified as Alireza Jafarzadeh, an Iranian opposition figure.

The Times article reported, citing resistance sources inside Iran, that the test was unsuccessful because the missile failed to reach the proper altitude. The Times also reported that worries about a U.S. or Israeli military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities prompted defense infrastructure changes by Tehran. Citing resistance sources inside Iran, the Times says Iran's ministry of defense has been moved to a "secretive" location where ministry facilities are widely dispersed. In addition, the commander of Iran's air and space program was removed from his position and replaced by an ally of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The measures cited by the Times appear mostly defensive in nature and seem more in line with a strategy designed to protect Iranian assets in case of attack. Iran has no history of attacking its neighbors, and it is highly unlikely that Tehran would launch an offensive action in the region.

In the long-term, ballistic missiles could be fitted with nuclear warheads that could target neighboring countries, but most analysts believe that Iran is many years away from developing a nuclear weapon small enough and ruggedized enough to be fitted to a ballistic missile. In the near-term, one could assume that Iran would launch conventional ballistic missiles at Israel or at U.S. targets within Iraq in the event of a U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran. But this is purely hypothetical at this point. In short, no one really knows how Tehran would respond.

Relocating the ministry of defense makes sense as well, as it would likely be a first-strike target in any U.S. or Israeli attack. If the Iranians are really fearful of a strike, though, it is likely that other key government ministries will take precautionary actions as well. So, Iran appears to be taking some minimal steps to prepare itself for the possibility of a strike by the U.S. or Israel, but it does not appear that full-scale preparations for an attack are underway.