Iran: Russia Warns Against Intimidation

News agency Reuters reported October 14 that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has issued a warning to other nations against "intimidating" Iran and characterized calls for sanctions against Iran as "premature." The statements contradict those made a few weeks earlier by Russian President Dimitry Medvedev that implied sanctions against Iran might be inevitable. Many analysts believe it is Putin who still wields real power in Moscow.

The story says, "Putin, who many diplomats, analysts, and Russian citizens believe is still Russia's paramount leader despite stepping down as president last year, was speaking after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Moscow for two days of talks. 'There is no need to frighten the Iranians,' Putin told reporters in Beijing after a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. 'We need to look for a compromise. If a compromise is not found, and the discussions end in a fiasco, then we will see.'"

How definitive is that? We will see? Could he have been any more vague? The truth is that Russia has too much money invested in Iran's nuclear program to allow meaningful sanctions that would impact Moscow's bottom line. It is the Russians and the Chinese who have thus far blocked any real sanctions against Iran that might actually bring the Iranians to the bargaining table.

Putin said, "And if now, before making any steps (towards holding talks) we start announcing some sanctions, then we won't be creating favourable conditions for them (talks) to end positively. This is why it is premature to talk about this now."

Newsflash: talks without the threat of serious sanctions are meaningless. There's no prospect for punitive action if the talks go south. Western nations have tried the carrots approach, with no success. It's time to switch from carrots to sticks.

The story continues, "Clinton failed to secure any specific assurances from Russia on Iran during her visit, leaving her open to criticism at home that she had not received anything from Moscow after earlier U.S. concessions on missile defence. Iranian, Russian, French, U.S. and U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency officials will meet in Vienna on Oct. 19 to discuss how to implement a plan agreed in principle at talks in Geneva for low-grade Iranian uranium to be enriched overseas to a purity suitable for nuclear reactors but not weapons. The Geneva talks on Oct. 1 also produced Iranian agreement for international inspectors to visit a second enrichment plant now under construction near Qom. Apparent Iranian concession reduced pressure for a widening of economic sanctions some analysts said could be extended to the oil and gas industry."

http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-43160620091014