Iran's Regional Goals

Olivier Guitta, an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and a foreign affairs and counterterrorism consultant, published a piece today in The Middle East Times that argues Iran's geopolitical strategy is about much more than just expanding its regional influence. Guitta explains in the article that Iran's real motive is to control all of Islam in the Middle East, and possibly around the world, saying, "...Iran is spending money, energy and time to proselytize local populations and de facto trying to take over Islam." Guitta lays out Iranian activities in the Palestinian Territories, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt to bolster his case, and then cites some expansion of Iranian influence in the Maghreb to show how Iran is pushing religious conversion beyond the Middle East.

This push for Shi'a dominance, Guitta says, is forcing Sunni states in the Middle East to react to what they perceive as a direct threat from Iran. Now, truthfully, there has been some evidence of heightened Sunni concern over Iran's increasing role in regional affairs, including support for Hezbollah and Hamas, interference in the ongoing war in Iraq, support to various groups in Afghanistan, ties to the Syrian government, and the continuing controversy over Tehran's nuclear program.

But my personal opinion is that Guitta is overplaying the religion card with this piece.

Shi'a Muslims account for a minority of all the world's Muslims, making up about 10% - 15% of those practicing Islam. It would be quite a feat for Iran to orchestrate a campaign to take over Islam, one not easily accomplished and one that is probably not at the top of Iran's foreign policy agenda. But putting that aside, it is much more likely that any Iranian attempt to convert Sunni Muslims to Shiism is a very small part of Tehran's larger strategy of expanding Iranian influence in the Middle East to position Iran as the region's hegemon.

Iran saw an opportunity to enhance its position with the U.S.-led ouster of Saddam Hussein's Sunni dictatorship in neighboring Iraq. The buffer that once helped limit Iranian influence in the broader Middle East was suddenly gone, and Iran increased its efforts region-wide in an effort to bolster its regional and international standing. Everything that we are seeing with regard to Iran right now, including support to militias in Iraq, the nuclear standoff with the west, support for Hezbollah and Hamas, aid to Afghanistan, all can be attributed to Iran's foreign policy goal of becoming the hegemon of the Middle East, and not some grand plan to convert the world's Sunni Muslims to Shiism.