Iraq War in Doubt According to New Report from Institute for National Strategic Studies

A new report by the National Defense University's Institute for National Strategic Studies, a policy research organization for the Pentagon, has cast significant doubt on the prospects for U.S. success in the war in Iraq. The report, issued Thursday, is available to the public on the Institute for National Strategic Studies' web site.

In "Choosing War: The Decision to Invade Iraq and its Aftermath," Dr. Joseph Collins, a professor of national security strategy at the National War College, says that despite the apparent success of President Bush's surge strategy, "the outcome of the war is in doubt," and the effort to stabilize Iraq "...is a classic case of failure to adopt and adapt prudent courses of action that balance ends, ways, and means."

In an analysis written for the Council on Foreign Relations, an independent think tank based in Washington, D.C., Greg Bruno writes that significant concerns have surfaced about the effect of the surge and an open-ended commitment to Iraq on the health of the U.S. Army. Bruno says the President's decision to allow General Petraeus to "pause" troop withdrawals after July means that more than 140,000 American troops will remain in Iraq, likely through the end of Bush's term as president.

Still, there is no shortage of pro-surge advocates who believe it is in America's best interests to maintain a large military presence in Iraq until the Iraqi government is capable of standing on its own. Resident scholar Frederick W. Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, a private, conservative-leaning think tank that examines public policy issues, says significant progress has been made by the Iraqi government, in large part due to the success of the American military surge in reducing overall violence levels throughout Iraq. Writing for the American Enterprise Institute, Kagan says, "The only groups that remain outside of the political process are al Qaeda, the Baathist insurgents, and the Iranian-backed Special Groups. If this isn't dramatic progress toward reconciliation, what would such progress look like?"

Given the assessment of Dr. Collins' report on the uncertain future of Iraq, an answer may be found in a newly released report by Dr. Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. In "Shaping a 'Conditions-Based' Strategy and Plan for Staying in Iraq," Dr. Cordesman writes that a case can be made for staying in Iraq, if "...Iraq moves forward at realistic rates of progress, as long as Iraq does not plunge into serious communal conflict, and as long as Iraq has a government that wants and benefits from US support and is not linked to Iran." Cordesman provides the outline of a way forward that could help the United States overcome what Collins has labeled "a major debacle."

Sources: NDU, CFR, AEI, CSIS