Iraqis Believe Army is Winning the War Against Terrorists

In the wake of the Baghdad Security Plan and after several years of American training, national polls across Iraq are showing that a majority of Iraqis are feeling confident about the war against terrorists. In a national poll, 64% of Iraqis, with a 1.5% margin of error, reported that they believe the Iraqi Army is winning the battle against terrorists, which has taken shape in the form of Sunni Awakening Councils, Concerned Local Citizen (CLC) groups, decreased sectarian fighting, and a massive return of public utilities to a majority of Iraq.

The report that Iraqis are confident is consistent with another poll released that says that most Iraqis feel safe in their own neighborhoods now, though they are still apprehensive of other neighborhoods and provinces. A similar 65% of Iraqis have the same confidence in the Iraqi police's ability to fight crime and keep citizens safe from various threats.

The primary contributor to this feeling of security seems to be in the Pentagon's report that al-Qaeda in Iraq, once considered to be among the most dangerous and violent groups in the country, has shifted its priorities from its offensive war against Shi'ites and Coalition forces to a defensive posture. According to a Pentagon report to Congress:

"While AQI (al-Qaeda in Iraq) retains the ability to conduct high profile attacks, it is mostly on the defensive and faces dwindling support within Iraq." This comes on the heels of what the Multinational Force Iraq (MNFI) describes as "bottom-up reconciliation" between local and domestic Shi'ites/Sunnis, who have joined together with the CLC groups to help clean the streets of IEDs, turn over weapons stock piles, and ultimately drive al-Qaeda in Iraq out of Baghdad and primarily into Diyala.

The provinces of Najaf, Muthanna, and Sulaymaniyah report the highest levels of confidence, while Ninewa and Diyala are reporting the lowest levels of confidence - the latter having become the latest stronghold of the Islamic State of Iraq (al-Qaeda in Iraq's shadow government) after the falls of Fallujah and Ramadi. To complicate al-Qaeda in Iraq's situation further, their declared capitol of Tehrir, Diyala was captured by American forces early into the Baghdad Security Plan.

Consistent with the rise in confidence in the army's progress, the Pentagon has reported a 53% drop in violence in the Baghdad province since the previous report before Congress, where in other areas such as Najaf, Dahuk, and Irbil, reports of insurgent attacks have ceased entirely.

Other factors contributing to increased sense of security includes the ceasefire declared by the Mahdi Army, now in its fifth month after the bloody Battle of Karbala that killed 50 Shi'ite pilgrims, and the decline of high profile attacks by al-Qaeda in Iraq, which have gone down 62% since March 2007, which, according to the Pentagon is "a result of constant pressure on AQI across Iraq from Coalition and Iraqi operations."

Perhaps the most important factor in the perceived success is the simple increase in efficiency and professionalism of the Iraqi Army itself. Now capable in many cases of launching counter-terrorist operations by itself, the Pentagon describes the Iraqi Army as "increasingly effective" and now plays a key role in keeping down al-Qaeda in Iraq's "Vehicle Born IEDs" (VBIEDs).

Sources:

-Pentagon/Department of Defense
-Significant Activities (SIGACTS) III Database Graphs
-Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq - December 2007 Report to Congress