Is Japan's Magnitude 8.9 Earthquake a Sign of the End Times?

Like many Americans, I woke up on March 11, 2011 to discover that there had been a large earthquake in Japan, measuring 8.9 on the Richter scale. It is the fifth largest earthquake to hit the planet since 1900 (before that time, records aren't as good as we have today). Some Christians are proclaiming that you can tell that the end is near because of this earthquake. Is that true? While the Bible does say to watch for the coming of the Lord, and does say that there will be earthquakes in the last days (Matthew 24:7), it's important to look at the evidence before jumping to conclusions.

Japan's March 11th Quake is Not the Biggest or Deadliest

The most important thing to remember is that the March 11th quake is not the largest earthquake in the last 111 years, nor is it the deadliest. The honor of the largest quake goes to the Chilean quake that occurred in May 1960. It measured 9.5 on the Richter scale. While magnitude 8 and greater earthquakes are rare, there is usually about one every year.

Japan's quake is also not the deadliest quake in history. That is believed to be a quake that occurred in Shansi, China, in 1556, where an estimated 830,000 people died. If we're going to restrict ourselves to the last 100 years, the 1976 quake in Tangshan, China killed more people; an estimated 655,000 people died (although the official record says 255,000 people died). The Haitian quake that occurred last January may not have been as large as this earthquake, but it killed many more people.

Early reports from this quake do not estimate a great number of quake deaths. In fact, for 2011, there have been fewer than average quake deaths so far this year. This could change if Japan's nuclear reactors melt down.

Earthquakes are Up

One argument in favor of the end being near is that the average number of earthquakes is up. Last year, I started tracking major earthquakes, calculating whether we are above or below average for the amount of quakes in a year. For both 2009 and 2010, we had more earthquakes of magnitudes 5, 6, and 7 than average, and an average number of magnitude 8 quakes, than we have had since 1990. We are on track to have more than average quakes for 2011 too.

We Will Not Know the Day nor the Hour

It's important to remember that Jesus said that "of that day and hour no one knows, not even the angels of heaven." (Matthew 24:36) We can know when the Lord's return is near, by studying the Bible and comparing the prophecies to the events to what is going on in the world today. The presence of modern-day Israel, Middle East unrest, and a push for a one-world government are good signs that the Lord's return is near; however, to jump to conclusions that suddenly the end is near because of one earthquake is foolish. While the Lord may return at any minute, it has been that way for quite some time; the presence of one earthquake is a sign that is important, but is not unique.