Is a Team's Seed Related to Winning the Super Bowl - 2008 Edition

Last year, I compiled some quick statistics on a NFL team's seed and their resulting probability of winning the Super Bowl, which featured the NFC #5 seed New York Giants and the AFC #1 seed New England Patriots. Well...it's about that time of year again. 12 teams will participate in the NFL playoffs for a chance to play in the Super Bowl. And once again this short article will take a look at how a team's seed affects their probability to win the Super Bowl.

To date, 19 number one seeded teams from either conference have made it to the Super Bowl, including the 2007 New England Patriots. If we compared the results of the number one seeded teams that have played in the Super Bowl, eight teams have won and ten have lost, including the 2007 New England Patriots. This gives the number one seed a historical probability of 42% to win the Super Bowl.

For the #2 seed in the NFL, 10 number two seeded teams from either conference have played in the Super Bowl. Five number two seeds have won the Super Bowl and five have lost, giving the number two seed a historical probability of 50% to win the Super Bowl.

With the NFL #3 seed, only two number three seeds have ever gone to the Super Bowl, the 2006 Indianapolis Colts and the 2003 Carolina Panthers. And one team has lost (2003 Panthers) and one team has won (2006 Colts). This gives the number three seed a historical probability of 50% to win the Super Bowl.

Four #4 seeds have appeared in the Super Bowl (1992 Buffalo Bills, 1997 Denver Broncos, 1999 Tennessee Titans, and the 2000 Baltimore Ravens). Again, we see a historical probability of 50% in winning the Super Bowl for number four seeded teams. Two have lost (1992 Bills and 1999 Titans) and two have won (1997 Broncos and 2000 Ravens).

Only one number five seeded team, the 2007 New York Giants, has ever made it to the Super Bowl. They subsequently defeated the New England Patriots in last year's Super Bowl to become the first #5 seeded team, and currently only one, to win it all. Similarly, the only number six seeded team to ever appear in the Super Bowl was the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, and they also won the Super Bowl that year too.

Well, I hope you enjoyed the quick look at this 2008 edition of how a team's seed is correlated to winning the Super Bowl. Interestingly, while it seems that the #5 and #6 Wild Card teams face an uphill battle to reach the Super Bowl in the NFL playoffs, they seem to experience success in winning the Super Bowl. So while a higher team seed seems to increase the probability of reaching the Super Bowl, once at the big game, seed rankings seem meaningless.