Is a Team's Seed Related to Winning the Super Bowl?

Ever since the NFL expanded to a 12-team playoff for the 1990 season, 36 playoff teams have advanced to the Super Bowl. During the playoffs, each conference seeds six teams from one to six based on their regular season records and whether or not they won their respective division. In the playoffs, the general trend is that the higher a team's seed, the more likely they will reach the Super Bowl. But does this trend carry over to the Super Bowl? Does a higher seed represent a better chance of winning the big game? This article takes a look at if a team's seed is related to winning the Super Bowl in the NFL's 12-team playoff era.

To date, 18 number one seeded teams from either conference have made it to the Super Bowl, the most recent being the 2007 New England Patriots. If we compared the results of the number one seeded teams that have played in the Super Bowl, eight teams have won and nine have lost. This gives the number one seed a historical probability of 47% to win the Super Bowl. Note if the Patriots win Super Bowl XLII, this would bring the historical probability of winning up to 50% for number one seeds.

Moving on to number two, 10 number two seeded teams from either conference have played in the Super Bowl. Five number two seeds have won the Super Bowl and five have lost, giving the number two seed a historical probability of 50% to win the Super Bowl.

Starting to notice a trend? It continues with the number three seed. Only two number three seeds have ever gone to the Super Bowl, the 2006 Indianapolis Colts and the 2003 Carolina Panthers. And one team has lost (2003 Panthers) and one team has won (2006 Colts). This gives the number three seed a historical probability of 50% to win the Super Bowl.

Moving on, four number four seeds have appeared in the Super Bowl (1992 Buffalo Bills, 1997 Denver Broncos, 1999 Tennessee Titans, and the 2000 Baltimore Ravens). Again, we see a historical probability of 50% in winning the Super Bowl for number four seeded teams. Two have lost (1992 Bills and 1999 Titans) and two have won (1997 Broncos and 2000 Ravens).

Only one number five seeded team, the 2007 New York Giants, has ever made it to the Super Bowl. As they prepare to play against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII, time will tell if they will become the first number five seeded team to win it all.

The only number six seeded team to ever appear in the Super Bowl was the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers. As they won it all that year, this results in number six seeded teams having a historical probability of 100% in winning the Super Bowl.

So what does the data imply? Aside from the number five and six seeds, any seed in the Super Bowl has a 50/50 chance of winning if we were to just consider the historical data and the team's respective seed. Thus, a team's seed is not related to winning the Super Bowl. While in the playoffs, a higher seed ranking tends to increase the possibility of a team reaching the Super Bowl, once there, seed rankings mean nothing.