Is the World Facing 'Peak Food'?

Are we on the brink of a radically different world when it comes to food? Several recent trends seem to indicate that might be the case.

Worldwide, food prices are rising at record levels. International food stores, on the other hand, are reaching record lows. The cause appears to be a "perfect storm" created by climate change, high oil prices, increased biofuel production and growing meat consumption among the world's newly middle class in places like China.

Australia's ongoing drought, for example, has caused agricultural output there to drop dramatically. And rising incomes in parts of the developing world are driving an increased demand for a more Western diet, including more meat, which requires large quantities of grain feed to produce.

For the relatively well-off in the developed world, the short-term impact of this perfect storm is likely to be higher bills at the grocery store. Wheat prices this week reached an all-time high of more than $10 a bushel, and the prices of agricultural commodities across the board are also rising. As of November, the consumer price index for food in the U.S. had risen by 5.3 percent, compared to an increase of 2.1 percent in all of 2006.

For the world's poor, the situation is even more dire.

Around the globe, 37 countries are facing food crises and several have seen riots provoked by high food prices, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The FAO is urging governments and aid organizations to act immediately before the situation worsens. Among its recommendations: provide the world's poor with vouchers for seeds, fertilizers and pesticides, rather than international food aid.

Sources of food from the ocean are also under threat from many directions. A recent study found that fish farms -- once considered a more sustainable option than catching wild fish -- are spreading deadly infections of sea lice to wild Pacific salmon. The infectious parasites have caused up to 95 percent mortality rates in some salmon populations. Wild fish stocks in Europe and other parts of the globe are also in decline, in part due to overfishing. Rising sea temperatures are also threatening fisheries, especially those dependent on coral reefs.

Over the past century, the industrialization of agriculture and globalization both contributed to greater food availability. However, many advocates of the environment and sustainability like Michael Pollan and Christopher D. Cook are now saying the solution to future food problems is a greater reliance on locally grown foods and an overhaul to today's system of agricultural subsidies and trade policies.