It's Down to the Wire in Survivor Samoa

The first few episodes of every new season of Survivor is always tentative, even a little boring. The viewing audience is just beginning to know all the players, and no one frankly cares about the first few people voted off. Usually midway into the show, one can tell if the Season is going to be really good (like Pearl Islands, or Micronesia's Fans vs. Favorites) or whether it's going to be another clunker (Thailand, Vanuatu).

Well, another installment of Survivor has passed and the Fall 2009 season certainly didn't disappoint. Samoa provided the perfect exotic backdrop for another round of 20 strangers to jostle their way through a social game of "King of the Hill". By the time the Foa Foa tribe merged with Galu, they were outnumbered and in danger of being sent to the jury. Amazing what some wise game play and a never-give-up attitude can do. With just Jaison, Russell, Natalie and Mick, they represented a solid voting block that exploited Galu's weaknesses. Week after week, we witnessed the Foa Foa four maintain their alliance as each Galu member was unceremoniously dispatched to the jury. The underdog became the Top Dog and as we head to Sunday's Finale, a single Galu member remains and suddenly he's become the underdog.

The finale wraps up tonight but I'm going to give my odds for the five remaining players.

Brett
The lone Galu member. The only reason he still exists is because he won immunity twice in a row. Even he realizes there's no chink he can find in the Foa Foa's armor to exploit. If he loses just one immunity, he's the next one to leave. When the numbers dwindle down to just five players, this is the time to flip and change the game. Brett, however, is too nice and meek to pull off a coup like this, and the remaining Galu members are so willful, not to mention loyal to each other, that Brett's only shot to stay in the game is to win immunity. The jury is comprised of all Galu members, so if he hangs in there, Brett has an excellent shot of winning the million dollars.

Natalie
Some say she may have ridden on Russell's coattails and while staying under the radar is never an impressive strategy, it's an effective one. Natalie is a natural beauty, but she can also be persuasive and very clever. Russell has a tendency to underestimate women and he likes to keep the "dumb" ones close to him; he likes to use them for their vote and he thinks they pose no threat to his game. Natalie, however, might prove to be a wolf in a hot bikini. She may just sway the jury to look at her perspective and build a forceful argument to give her the million dollars rather than the obvious, but more unsavory hard core game player...

Russell
A serious game player from the get-go, Russell was also the biggest dick about it too. Cocksure and talking trash about everyone else, Russell reminds me much of Tom Westman of Palau and Richard Hatch of Borneo. There were so few people who did little to stem the threat of these players, that the million dollar win was literally handed to them on a silver platter. Russell stands to win the million dollars as well and all he has to do is remain honest with the questions the jury pose to him and tone down his cocky demeanor. Still, he has his work cut out for him; this is a social game and if you anger just one member of the jury or if you're unlikable in any way, you don't get their vote. In 19 tribal councils, very few juries have voted objectively; they have all voted according to the more likable candidate.

Jaison
I dig the man's integrity and he's a lawyer. Did you see how he thrashed Ben with that verbal beatdown? Dude can argue effectively and that can make all the difference. Plus, he's made no enemies. I'm trying to see how the jury perceives Jaison and I don't think they like or dislike him. He left all the bad cop duties to Russell and that's a smart move. Tribal council would be Jaison's moment to shine should he make it to the end.

Mick
The hottie anesthesiologist who made us all fall asleep. Mick may have not made for great TV - decent people usually don't, but I wouldn't mind seeing him win. Truth be told, however, I don't think he has a chance. He was too nice and he didn't take the chance to change the game in his favor when it was presented to him. If Brett wins immunity, Mick would be the easy choice to be dispatched to the jury.

Let's see what happens tonight. If the finale and Final Tribal council is exciting and fraught with sparks and drama, Samoa could really rank up there with the best seasons I mentioned. As it is now, CBS has provided another solid season of reality TV with Survivor Samoa. Thanks for reading.